Early Energy Sector Optimism for 2026

Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Exxon and Kinder Morgan both expressed optimism about the U.S. energy sector in 2026. Higher gas prices are supportive, though inland oil may face price pressures.

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Growth Phase for 2026

Energy companies are already pointing to the future, with the likes of Exxon Mobil Corporation (Spring, Texas) and Kinder Morgan (Houston, Texas) expecting tailwinds in the U.S. energy sector for 2026.

"By 2030, we now expect $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth vs. 2024 on the same constant price and margin basis," Darren Woods, the chairman and chief executive officer at Exxon, said Tuesday.

ExxonMobil during the third quarter reported adjusted net earnings of $8.1 billion, beating expectations, but free cash flow declined from $11.3 billion in 2024 to $6.3 billion on spending to acquire more acreage in the Permian Basin.

On Tuesday, the company said it expects to see upstream earnings top $14 billion, leveraged by a strong portfolio in liquefied natural gas (LNG), offshore Guyana and in the Permian.

"By 2030, production from these assets is expected to reach nearly 3.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, representing approximately 65% of total volumes," Exxon said in a statement.

Guyana is emerging as a major oil producer, with the likes of Chevron (Houston, Texas) and Exxon pursuing offshore interests. An oil and gas producer only since 2019, Guyana's production reached 645,000 barrels per day (BBL/d) in early 2024, all from the Stabroek block, and could reach 1.3 million BBL/d by 2030.

Exxon was an early player, making its first oil discovery in 2015 at the Liza prospect inside Stabroek.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project and Plant databases can learn more about projects offshore Guyana--including capacities, investment values and necessary equipment--in a list of related projects.

A Gas Bonanza?

Elsewhere, the U.S. LNG sector is in overdrive, while the Permian is the only shale basin expecting annual growth in production to 2026. Permian crude oil production is on pace to increase from 6.5 million BBL/d to 6.57 million BBL/d by next year. Profitability, however, could be challenged by a lower price outlook. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, is expected to drop to levels below the point at which some shale drillers can break even.

The Permian is also the second-largest natural gas producer, after the Appalachia basin situated largely in West Virginia and Pennsylvania. It's that gas that led Kinder Morgan to express optimism about its future.

"We expect to continue benefiting from strong natural gas market fundamentals, supporting growth on our existing transportation and storage assets and creating expansion opportunities," said Tom Martin, the company's president.

Richard Kinder, the executive chairman, has said that, from his perspective, this is clearly the era of U.S. global leadership in energy. U.S. natural gas markets are in an expansion phase, with both production and exports of LNG on pace for an increase next year.

The industry can expect support from market prices, with Henry Hub, the U.S. benchmark for the price of natural gas, on pace for a 14% increase by next year.

Kinder Morgan reported net income during the third quarter of $628 million, compared to $625 million during the same period last year.

U.S. natural gas is mixed. Production increases next year, but just barely. Meanwhile, commitments from U.S. LNG could lead to a bloated market in the 2030s, but those commitments could create headaches for consumers as the domestic market gets depleted.

By the Numbers

• $35 billion: Exxon cash flow growth from 2024 to 2030
• 6.57 million BBL/d: Permian crude production expected by next year
• 14% increase in Henry Hub expected

Key Takeaways

• Despite some clouds, 2026 optimism is high so far.
• Gas and oil production are on divergent paths.
• Exxon is keen on U.S. developments.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).