East Coast on Alert for Next Winter Storm

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst, for IIR News Intelligence

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Summary

A potentially significant winter storm may impact the U.S. East Coast this weekend, possibly named Gianna. While large-scale patterns support development, forecast confidence remains limited. Small track and timing differences could sharply alter snowfall, wind, coastal impacts, and stress on the energy infrastructure.

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More Snow and Ice on the Way?

A potentially significant winter storm is coming into focus for the U.S. East Coast this upcoming weekend. Once this storm develops it could be named "Gianna" by the Weather Channel. Confidence in specific impacts remains limited due to the lengthy lead time and the sensitivity of the forecast to small changes in storm track and timing. This particular factor was notable in the days and hours prior to the recent Winter Storm Fern.

Click on the image at right for a map from the U.S. Weather Prediction Center.

The anticipated large-scale pattern would be supportive of a significant winter event. A strong upper-level trough is expected to dominate the eastern half of the U.S. through the end of the month and into February. This pattern will maintain a firmly entrenched cold air across the East. This Arctic pattern is forecast to be sustained, increasing the likelihood that precipitation associated with a coastal system would fall as snow or a wintry mix well inland.

Guidance increasingly favors the development of a pair of coastal lows along a slow-moving cold front on Friday, January 30. The first low is forecast to develop over the northern Gulf, aided by the temperature gradient between coastal land and warmer Gulf waters, along with favorable winds aloft. The other one would develop off the Southeast. Over the following 24 hours, the Gulf low is expected to move across the Florida peninsula. Early Saturday, the Atlantic low will slowly move to the northeast, while absorbing the Gulf low's energy.

Late Saturday and into Sunday, the primary low is expected to continue its slow northerly track past the Outer Banks of North Carolina and the Delmarva Peninsula. For Sunday, differences in the projected tracks vary by hundreds of miles. These variations drastically impact potential impacts, both onshore and offshore. While the signal for development has strengthened over the past 24--36 hours, the range of plausible outcomes remains wide enough that both high-impact and lower-impact scenarios are still on the table.

Subtle differences in how the upper-level pattern evolves and how rapidly the Atlantic low intensifies will impact precipitation type and placement. A track closer to the East Coast would favor heavier snow extending farther inland across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and possibly southern New England. This possible track increases the risk of strong winds, coastal flooding, and heavy wet snow near the coast. Conversely, if the storm moves farther offshore, the heaviest precipitation would move eastward, limiting snowfall totals inland and confining the most severe impacts to coastal areas and marine traffic.

These factors are most evident in the Mid-Atlantic outlook. The Carolinas and parts of coastal southern New England currently show the highest agreement for impactful winter weather, while areas from Virginia through New Jersey sit closer to the gradient between higher and lower impact solutions. Even small westward or eastward adjustments of 50--100 miles in the storm track could dramatically alter outcomes in these regions.

Another layer of uncertainty stems from potential temperature structure in the lower few miles of the atmosphere, particularly near the coast. While the cold air mass is well established inland, the extent of warmer marine air being drawn inland will depend on the storm's intensity, distance to the shore, and its forward speed. Stronger, faster-deepening solutions favor more robust cold air retention and snow closer to the coast. A faster storm would bring less precipitation along its track. These details are unlikely to be resolved until the system is within 48--72 hours of the event.

Beyond snowfall, wind and coastal hazards are also an important part of the forecast discussion. A rapidly deepening coastal low would likely produce strong northeasterly winds along the East Coast, with the potential for gusts capable of causing power disruptions, especially where heavy, wet snow accumulates on trees and power lines. The combination of strong winds, building waves, and timing near periods of astronomical high tide raises the risk of coastal flooding, particularly from the Carolinas northward into New England. As with snowfall, the magnitude of these impacts is closely tied to the exact storm track and intensity.

Even after the coastal system exits, cold temperatures are expected to persist across much of the central and eastern United States into early next week. Snow and ice cover left behind by the storm could enhance radiational cooling, prolonging cold conditions and increasing the likelihood of lingering travel and infrastructure impacts. This context heightens the overall risk profile of the event, even if the storm ultimately trends weaker or farther offshore.

At this stage, the focus should be more on probabilities rather than specifics. The U.S. Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the chance for at least moderate winter storm impacts along much of the East Coast this weekend. This reflects the growing signal for a significant system, while there is uncertainty in the details.

Energy Impacts -- Outlook & Carryovers from Winter Storm Fern

The energy impacts from the anticipated winter storm could stack on top of an already-stressed Eastern grid. Heavy wet snow, icing, high winds, and coastal flooding may potentially extend from the Carolinas to New England.

The PJM Interconnection, which serves roughly 67 million people in the eastern U.S., has experienced days of extreme cold where peak load has been projected near 147.2 gigawatts (GW), above the prior winter record of 143.7 GW in January 2025. This developed into a winter-duration stress test for both fuel assurance and unit performance.

In this context, a wind-driven coastal storm can shift the reliability problem from "pure load" to "load + forced outages," particularly for the Mid-Atlantic power load centers from Richmond, Virginia to Philadelphia, onward to northern New Jersey. Across PJM, Winter Storm Fern coincided with 21--22 GW of generation outages, representing about 15% of the committed capacity.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) grid has been operating in the same cold regime and, while it has not established an all-time winter peak in current reporting, late-January peak load forecasts are running into the 106+ GW range. An East Coast storm may tighten gas markets and pulls incremental supply east. This development could raise congestion and price volatility back through MISO--PJM interfaces.

Fuel and infrastructure risk could develop because of this potential winter storm. Constrained natural gas deliverability can force marginal generation to flip to oil in New England. Additionally, coastal disruption to marine operations and logistics can complicate resupply right when burn rates are elevated.

Key Takeaways

• Amplified upper-level trough and entrenched Arctic air favor snow or wintry mix along the East Coast.
• Early guidance supports coastal low development, but track uncertainty remains large, particularly for the Mid-Atlantic.
• Small shifts (50--100 miles) in the track could dramatically change snowfall, wind, and flooding impacts.
• Strong winds and heavy wet snow raise power outage and coastal flooding risks.
• PJM grid remains stressed after recent record cold, with ~15% capacity recently offline.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).