IIR's June 12 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
OPEC infighting holds down rally in crude prices		A lackluster week in crude oil markets left many analysts second-guessing the impact of Saudi production cuts, though short-term price movements depend on decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Any hopes for a major rally last week evaporated on Thursday amid reports of a possible interim deal with Washington that would allow Iranian oil to return to the market. The White House characterized the rumors as "false and misleading," though the news pushed West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, below $70 per barrel before a late-week recovery. A deal would require congressional consent, raising doubts over whether a breakthrough is possible given the partisan climate in Washington.	Houston Chronicle	U.S. Rig Count, Oil Purchase for SPR: Your Daily Energy News
Oil Price Forecast: Fed Meeting, China Demand, Russian Supply Worries Weigh		Oil prices declined on Monday as investors eagerly awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting to gauge the central bank's stance on interest rate hikes. Concerns about China's fuel demand growth and increasing Russian crude supply added further pressure to the market, resulting in both benchmarks experiencing a second consecutive weekly decline. The disappointing economic data from China raised doubts about demand growth in the world's largest crude importer, offsetting the positive impact of Saudi Arabia's commitment to cutting production by 1 million barrels per day in July.	FXEmpire	U.S. Refineries Prep for Turnarounds Amid Busy Summer Season
Oil prices partially recover after U.S., Iran deny reported nuclear deal		Oil prices settled lower on Thursday but rebounded from earlier losses after the U.S. and Iran both denied a report that they were close to a nuclear deal. Oil fell by more than $3 on the report that the U.S. would give Iran sanctions relief to export oil in return for Tehran reducing uranium enrichment. A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council called the report "false and misleading". "If there's no Iran deal then we're back where we were before, focused more on fuel demand," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. Oil prices were lower earlier after the U.S. reported a larger-than-expected rise in gasoline inventories on Wednesday. That raised concern about U.S. fuel demand, with the peak summer driving season well under way.	Reuters	ISM: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Continues Downtrend
Aramco To Supply Full Crude Volumes To Asian Refiners Despite Production Cut		Saudi Aramco, the world's largest crude oil exporter, has assured at least five North Asian refiners they would get the full crude volumes they had asked for in July, even after the production cut Saudi Arabia announced last week, sources familiar with the plans told Reuters on Monday. On June 4, the OPEC+ producers decided to keep the current cuts until the end of 2024, while OPEC's top producer, Saudi Arabia, said it would voluntarily reduce its production by 1 million bpd in July, to around 9 million bpd. The cut could be extended beyond July, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said. On the following day, Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) for its flagship grade Arab Light for Asia by $0.45 per barrel to a premium of $3.00 over the Oman/Dubai average, off which Middle East crude for Asia is priced. The price hike from Saudi Arabia surprised the market, which before the Saudi production cut had expected lower prices in a Reuters poll.	OilPrice	Asia Leads the Way with Spending in Biosimilars Sector
Saudi Arabia is seeking collaboration not competition with China, energy minister says		Saudi Arabia is seeking stronger cooperation with China on trade investments and energy flows rather than competing with the superpower, said Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. "We came to recognize the reality of today that China is taking, had taken a lead, will continue to take that lead. We don't have to compete with China, we have to collaborate with China," he told CNBC's Dan Murphy during the Arab-China Business Conference on Sunday. He added that there is value in working with China because they have taken the lead in getting the "right manufacturers" especially in the renewables space. "We will never go again to this zero-sum game." On why the OPEC kingpin has eyes on China, Abdulaziz said he believes that China's oil demand is still growing, and it is a pie that Saudi Arabia is keen on capturing.	CNBC	Nations, States, Utilities Find It Hard to Stop Using Coal
EU, COP28 host UAE pledge to rally support for renewable goals		The European Commission and the United Arab Emirates' presidency of this year's COP28 climate summit pledged on Wednesday to seek support for global goals to expand renewable energy, which they said would help countries to shift from unabated fossil fuels The two sides will work to "ensure maximum support on global 2030 targets for the tripling of renewable energy and doubling of energy efficiency," a statement agreed after a meeting of officials in Brussels said. "These targets would support the transition towards energy systems free of unabated fossil fuels." Unabated fossil fuels are those that do not use technology to capture the CO2 emissions produced from burning them. The EU and COP28 hosts UAE will also work together on establishing a fund to address irreparable damage climate change is causing in vulnerable countries, they said. Countries agreed last year to launch that fund, but have yet to negotiate how it will work and where the money will come from.	Reuters	Global Pulp & Paper Sector Embraces ESG Projects
Week 06/05/23 - 06/12/23		Demand body blow. Last week two heavyweights--Supply & Demand stepped into the ring; with Supply--thanks to the OPEC+ cuts announcement--striking a solid uppercut, which at first staggered Demand. Now this week Demand lands a solid body blow on Supply as further concerns about China's fuel demand growth (& industrial outlook) are raised. Not to mention Supply looks "weighted down" & "ponderous" in the ring as announcements have been made to Mr. Market--who is sitting ringside--about not only increasing Russian supply but that once again Iranian crude could conceivably return to the marketplace.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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