IIR's June 19 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Crude rally seen despite short-term uncertainty		Those betting that momentum in the world's leading economies will drive oil prices higher may be disappointed, analysts said, though recent market volatility points to uncertain times. It was a wild week, with the price of oil dropping by 4% June 12. But West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of crude, managed to claw back toward $70 per barrel after a hectic week of interest rate decisions and calls of peak demand from the International Energy Agency. Markets responded early last week to downgrades in oil price forecasts from the likes of JP Morgan and the bullish Goldman Sachs. Swiss investment bank UBS followed suit later in the week, pointing to extra supply from Venezuela and Iran, the latter of which is producing at a rate not seen since late 2018.	Houston Chronicle	Two Days Until IIR's Mid-Year North American Outlook & Networking Event!
Oil Price Forecast: China's Uncertainties Overshadow OPEC+ Cuts, Oil Rig Drop		Global oil prices faced a decline of over $1 on Monday, erasing the gains from the previous week. The market sentiment was influenced by concerns surrounding China's economy, overshadowing the impact of OPEC+ output cuts and the ongoing decrease in the number of operating oil and gas rigs in the United States. China's economic uncertainties played a significant role in the selloff, following a brief two-day rebound in oil markets ahead of the decision by The People's Bank of China (PBOC) on its loan prime rates (LPR) later this week. Several major banks have revised down their 2023 GDP growth forecasts for China due to disappointing May data, indicating a faltering post-COVID recovery in the world's second-largest economy. PBOC Expected to Cut Rates, Implement Stimulus Measures	FXEmpire	U.S. Rig Count, Natural Gas Pipeline Company of America: Your Daily Energy News
Rate cuts, hikes and pauses: The world's central banks just made very different decisions		From hawkish pauses to rate hikes and dovish tones, the world's biggest central banks last week struck very different tones on monetary policy. The European Central Bank on Thursday hiked rates and surprised markets with a worsening inflation outlook, which led investors to price in even more rate increases in the euro zone. This followed a Federal Reserve meeting where the central bank decided to pause rate hikes. Just days before that, China's central bank lowered its key medium-term lending rates to stimulate the economy. In Japan, where inflation is above target, the central bank has left its ultra-loose policy unchanged. "Taking all these different approaches together shows that not only seems there to be a new divergence on the right approach for monetary policy but it also illustrates that the global economy is no longer synchronized but rather a collection of very different cycles," Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Germany, told CNBC via email.	CNBC	Green Light for Aker BP's $15 Billion North Sea Projects
Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Exports Dropped To A Five-Month Low In April		Saudi Arabia, the world's top crude oil exporter, saw its crude exports drop to a five-month low in April, a month before the first of the voluntary Saudi cuts began in May, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday. In April, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports slumped by 207,000 barrels per day (bpd) from March, to 7.32 million bpd, according to JODI, which compiles self-reported data from many countries. -Saudi Arabia has started importing cheap diesel from fellow OPEC+ producer Russia, purchasing Russian fuels which are now banned to enter the EU by sea. According to trading and ship-tracking sources who spoke to Reuters last month, Saudi Arabia is making money from diesel trading after the EU embargo on Russian fuels, as the world's top crude exporter is now importing record volumes of cheap diesel from Russia and exporting record levels of its own diesel to the higher-priced Asian market in the Singapore hub.	OilPrice	Saudi's $8 Billion NEOM Hydrogen Project Secures Full Funding
More talks needed to resume Iraq's northern oil exports		Further talks will be needed in order to resume Iraq's northern oil exports, two officials told Reuters today following a meeting between a Turkish energy technical delegation and Iraqi oil officials in Baghdad on Monday. "We are discussing all technical aspects regarding the restarting of oil exports. A decision to resume flows will not happen today and more meetings are expected," an oil official familiar with the meeting said on condition of anonymity. Turkey halted Iraq's 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of northern exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline on March 25 after an arbitration ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). Turkey wants to negotiate the size of damages it was ordered to pay in the arbitration ruling and also seeks clarification on other open arbitration cases, said another oil official.	Reuters	ADNOC Moves Forward with Major Offshore Development
Cash and carbon cuts stall UN climate talks - setting the stage for a 'huge fight' at COP28		Negotiators departed the United Nations campus in Bonn, Germany this week with a palpable sense of frustration over key decarbonization issues, such as climate finance and the pace of carbon pollution cuts. The Bonn Climate Change Conference, which wrapped late Thursday, is designed to prepare decisions for adoption at the COP28 summit in the United Arab Emirates later this year. It is widely regarded as a mid-way check on how talks are progressing ahead of the world's biggest annual international climate conference. For many at the two-week-long event, the lack of progress on issues such as climate finance and the pace of cuts in carbon pollution left a lot to be desired. "Progress was underwhelming on nearly every front, with one main culprit: money," said David Waskow, international climate director at World Resources Institute, a global non-profit organization.	CNBC	European Union, Argentina Sign MoU on Raw Materials
Week 06/12/23 - 06/19/23		We don't know, what we don't know as uncertainties abound in the energy & financial markets. The Major Banks - in their outlooks - are downgrading oil prices; however Mr. Market mostly shrugged off their doom & gloom for a short-term rally this past week. Though, Mr. Market might not so easily shrug off concerns to China's economy - as several banks revise down their China 2023 GDP growth forecasts. Whereas, Central Banks cannot seem to come together - ECB hiked rates, Fed paused, PBOC lowered lending rates, Japan holds course on ultra loose policy - on a consistent global monetary policy. What we do know is these markets will remain volatile for the foreseeable future...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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