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IIR's June 26 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

...Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies...

Released Monday, June 26, 2023

IIR's June 26 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News
Event MarCon* IIR Comment Outlet IIR News
Outlook Muted as Higher Interest Rates Put Lid On Demand for Oil With the Dallas Fed pointing to expectations of lower crude oil prices, analysts said a major rally is unlikely over the short term, given that central bank policies may throttle broader economic momentum.
The Bank of England and the Turkish central bank all hiked lending rates last week, with the latter opting for a staggering increase of 650 basis points. That followed rhetoric from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated the recent pause in its rate increases might be brief.
With data on tap from durable goods orders in the U.S. economy to industrial profits year-to-date in China, Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at New York brokerage OANDA, said this week could be a big one for determining market sentiment.
"Summer is here and fears that central banks might need to deliver much more aggressive tightening that torpedoes the global economy would prevent oil from mustering up any rallies," he said. "For the U.S., good news will be bad news, as that could trigger more tightening by the Fed."		 Houston Chronicle Venture Global LNG, Energy Transfer: Your Daily Energy News
Oil Price Forecast: Russia's Political Instability Sparks Supply Worries Oil prices surged on Monday as concerns over political instability in Russia and its potential impact on oil supply gripped the market. The weekend's revolt by Russian mercenaries heightened fears about President Vladimir Putin's grip on power and the stability of one of the world's largest oil producers.
While consultancy Rystad Energy does not expect a significant increase in oil prices due to the "short-lived event," it emphasized that geopolitical risk has risen with internal instability in Russia. Concerns arose that the declaration of martial law could hinder workers' access to major loading ports and energy facilities, potentially resulting in a halt to millions of barrels of exports.		 FXEmpire Petroleum Refining: A Snapshot of Global Grassroot Initiatives
Global Floating Oil Storage Hits Highest Level Since October 2020 Crude oil on stationary tankers has reached about 129 million barrels as of the end of last week, the highest floating crude volumes since October 2020, Vortexa data cited by Bloomberg showed on Monday.
Recent data points have shown that while crude on floating storage has been rising, crude in transit and total crude volumes at sea have been falling, according to Bloomberg.
The rise in floating storage is also due to an unusual cluster of mostly Saudi supertankers loaded with oil that has been idling off Egypt's Red Sea coast for weeks. Signs have emerged that the cluster may have started to clear, as two of the 11 tankers are no longer anchored near the Ain Sukhna oil terminal off Egypt.
As of June 16, ten very large crude carriers (VLCCs) carrying about 20 million barrels of oil were floating off Ain Sukhna and another two supertankers were heading to the same location, Vortexa data showed.		 OilPrice U.S. Petrochemical Sector Preps for Maintenance on Busiest Units
OPEC Says Oil Demand to Hit 110 Million Barrels Per Day in 2045 Global oil demand will rise to 110 million barrels a day in about 20 years, pushing the world's energy demand up 23%, OPEC said on Monday.
"Oil is irreplaceable for the foreseeable future," Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais of OPEC said while addressing the inaugural Energy Asia conference held in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur.
"In our worldwide outlook, we see global oil demand rising to 110 million barrels a day by 2045," he said, adding that oil will still comprise about 29% of the energy mix by then.		 CNBC U.S. Solar Power Output Sapped by Canadian Wildfires
Renewables Growth Did Not Dent Fossil Fuel Dominance in 2022, Report Says Global energy demand rose 1% last year and record renewables growth did nothing to shift the dominance of fossil fuels, which still accounted for 82% of supply, the industry's Statistical Review of World Energy report said on Monday.
The stubborn lead of oil, gas and coal products in covering most energy demand cemented itself in 2022 despite the largest-ever increase in renewables capacity at a combined 266 gigawatts, with solar leading wind power growth, the report said.
"Despite further strong growth in wind and solar in the power sector, overall global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased again," said Juliet Davenport, the president of the UK-based global industry body Energy Institute.
"We are still heading in the opposite direction to that required by the Paris Agreement."		 Reuters Direct Lithium Extraction: A Cleaner Path to Battery Technology?
At Asia Energy Event, Officials Warn Against Sacrificing Growth for Transition Hydrocarbons will be an important part of Asia's energy mix, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and industry executives said on Monday, as affordability and energy security remain key concerns for the region.
Achieving net-zero emissions targets should not come "at the expense of economic growth or vice versa," Anwar said at the inaugural Energy Asia conference, hosted by Malaysia's state oil firm Petronas.
"Instead, Asia must take every opportunity to further dialogue and actions around how we can responsibly plan to enable every country (in) its right to development and lower carbon aspirations," he said.		 Reuters New Report Urges Surge in Clean Energy Investments in Emerging Economies
Week 06/19/23 - 06/26/23 The pressure is on as Mr. Market is feeling the squeeze from central banks as rates increase yet again, with even the Fed indicating its pause may be brief. Although supply out of Russia might be impacted due to a short-lived rebellion, the world is seemingly awash with inventory in the form of floating storage. How much can--or will--OPEC+ cut to balance the market? For the foreseeable future the pressure is on to the downside--unless, of course, more geopolitical turmoil roils these markets.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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