IIR's May 27 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Iran Threatens Strike on Israel as US Talks Hang in Balance		Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, commander-in-chief of Iran's Army, said on Monday that Tehran is "fully ready" for another aerial strike, calling it a justified response to perceived Israeli aggression. While Iran signals readiness for more military action, U.S. and Israeli officials say that sanctions, regional containment policies, and continued diplomatic engagement-set to resume in a sixth round of nuclear talks-are effectively constraining Tehran's strategic ambitions..	Newsweek	U.S. Nuclear Sector, AES Corporation: Your Daily Energy News
Kremlin calls Trump 'emotional' after US president says Putin is 'crazy'		The Kremlin claimed Donald Trump was showing signs of "emotional overload" after he called Vladimir Putin "absolutely crazy" following Moscow's largest aerial assault on Ukraine. Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, meanwhile said that Ukraine's allies had removed all range limits on supplied arms, amid reports he would give Kyiv Taurus missiles. Despite Kyiv's European allies preparing further sanctions for Russia, the US has said it will either continue trying to broker these peace talks, or "walk away" if progress does not follow.	BBC	Geopolitical Risk Not Enough to Lift Oil Prices
Oil steady ahead of OPEC+ meeting as trade war concerns ease		Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as easing trade war concerns offset expectations OPEC+ will decide to increase output at a meeting later this week. Easing trade war concerns are lifting prices, but the upside remains limited until it is clear what the OPEC+ will decide on Saturday, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, will likely finalise July output at their meeting, which sources have previously told Reuters will entail a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day.	Reuters	Oil, Refining at Risk from This Year's Atlantic Hurricane Season
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors assess Trump's tariff plans Dow futures rally 500 points after Trump announces delay on EU tariff		Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday as investors continued to assess the global trade climate after U.S. President Donald Trump deferred 50% tariffs on European Union imports. US Stock futures jumped Tuesday after President Donald Trump said over the holiday weekend that he agreed to delay tariffs of 50% on the European Union. Traders this week will follow earnings from Okta, Nvidia, Macy's and Costco. More than 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported this earnings season and almost 78% have surpassed analyst expectations, according to FactSet.	CNBC	Trump Administration Takes Energy, Offshore Mining Policies to U.S. Territories Jacobs Reports Record-High Backlog as Tech Projects Pile Up
Natural Gas News: Bears Eye 200-Day Support as Inventory Builds Pressure Futures		Natural gas futures hover near the 200-day moving average, with traders guarding the $3.181 technical support level. A break below $3.181 could accelerate losses to $2.376; resistance at $3.513 must be cleared to shift market sentiment. Electricity demand showed modest gains, rising 2.5% year-over-year for the week ending May 17, per Edison Electric Institute data. NOAA's early June outlook hints at warmer conditions, which could spark higher cooling demand and provide some short-term support. However, much of the East and Midwest remains under temperate weather, limiting widespread power burn. The outlook remains bearish in the near term. With strong production, bearish storage data, and limited demand growth, downside risk dominates.	FX Empire	AEP Expands T&D Capacity, Adds NGCC Plant as Load Growth Looms
China's Soft Spot in Trade War With Trump: Risk of Huge Job Loss		In a research report, Natixis said that if U.S. tariffs stayed at their current levels of at least 30 percent, exports to the United States would fall by half, resulting in a loss of up to six million manufacturing jobs. If the trade war resumes again in full, the job losses could surge to nine million. China's economy has struggled to recover from the pandemic, expanding more slowly than in the years of Mr. Trump's first term, when growth was more than 6 percent a year. Although the Chinese government has said it is targeting growth of around 5 percent this year, many economists have predicted that the actual figure will not reach those levels.	The New York Times	House Budget Hearings Target Biden-Era Spending on Clean Energy, Climate Change
Goldman Sachs Doubles Down on Bearish Oil Outlook Despite Rising Demand		Goldman Sachs expects substantial growth in non-OPEC supply to send oil prices lower in 2026, with Brent hitting $56 and WTI dropping to $52. U.S. shale production, which Goldman Sachs excluded from non-OPEC supply growth, could peak sooner than expected. UBS challenges Goldman's surplus view, pointing to tighter Q1 inventories and potential forecast revisions for both supply and demand.	OilPrice	Rio Tinto Partners with Chile's ENAMI to Develop Lithium Project
Week 05/19/25 - 05/27/25		Are we on the brink of further escalation in both Eastern Europe as well as the Middle East? Russia launched one of its largest aerial assaults on Ukraine yet over this Memorial Day weekend, prompting the West to remove "range limits" on supplied arms. And, in the Middle East, Iran is posturing on a third "True Promise" aerial strike on Israel. This "rattling of sabers & arms" comes amid ongoing talks - so will the pen prove yet again to be mightier than the sword? Mr. Oil market is keeping an eye on the geopolitical posturing and gamesmanship and another on geoeconomics as Trade Talks continue with both the EuroZone as well as China, wondering who is going to "blink" first...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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