Oil Prices Spike After Trump Speech on Iran

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Seeming to escalate, rather than wind down, the conflict in Iran during a prime-time address on Wednesday, Trump's rhetoric sent crude oil prices skyrocketing.

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Brent Flirts Briefly with $110 per Barrel

Crude oil prices jumped on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump offered no concrete war developments during a prime-time address to the nation.

"Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks," Trump said in a 20-minute address late Wednesday.

Trump has delivered oscillating messages on the war since joint action with Israel against Iran began in late February. An exit ramp may be in sight, he said Wednesday, while at the same time threatening to bomb Iran "back to the stone ages where they belong."

By April 29, Trump will need to seek congressional approval under the War Powers Act to continue any military options. So far, however, the endgame is unclear.

Late Wednesday, meanwhile, QatarEnergy said the chartered fuel oil tanker Aqua 1 was hit by a missile in Qatar's territorial waters. No crew were injured, though it highlights the ongoing risks of traversing the Persian Gulf during wartime.

Subscribers can find more details on the impact to QatarEnergy's infrastructure in this breaking-energy news feature.

The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, closed trading Wednesday at $101.16 per barrel. In pre-market action on Thursday, the price had spiked some 7% to flirt with $110 per barrel.

"Failing to reassure the U.S. public and global investors that oil would soon flow through the Strait, oil prices rallied while equities plunged," wrote Tamas Varga, an analyst at London oil broker PVM, in a Thursday newsletter. "Inflation fears remain elevated as the war of choice continues."

Michael Barr, a member of the Board of Governors at the U.S. Federal Reserve, said last week that recent developments in the Middle East could have broad implications for the economy.

"We need to be especially vigilant," he said.



By the Numbers

• $109.72: the intra-day high for Brent crude oil
• 59% spike in TTF since fighting began

Pressures Apparent Elsewhere

The U.S. economy already was under pressure before the war began. The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday reported the number of new hires declined by 498,000 in February.

"The hires rate decreased over the month to 3.1%," BLS stated. "This was the lowest hires rate since April 2020, when it was also 3.1%."

One of the more ubiquitous signs of consumer pressure, meanwhile, is the price at the pump. Travel club AAA put the national average retail price at $4.08 for a gallon of regular unleaded on Thursday, up from $2.99 a month ago. With the Persian Gulf carrying crude oil grades conducive to producing middle distillates, the price of diesel is also at a premium, up 46% since the war began.

Against the underwhelming market reaction to Trump's speech, IIR Energy issued an alert to clients Wednesday that the U.S. tapped into its strategic reserves for the first time since 2025, as part of an effort to offset a tightened market.

Volumes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) declined by 400,000 barrels over the seven-day period ending March 27. A coordinated response from members of the International Energy Agency called for about 420 million barrels from strategic reserves. That's the amount of oil that would normally move through the Strait of Hormuz over the span of 21 days.

Elsewhere, global natural gas markets are upended by the decline in waterborne deliveries and attacks on QatarEnergy installations. Alongside the U.S. and Australia, Qatar is among the largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world.

Production at Qatari plants had been halted since March 2, some two days after the war began. The price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), which serves as a European benchmark for the price of wholesale natural gas, was up 7% early Thursday and 59% higher than when the conflict began.

Key Takeaways

• Markets are convinced Trump wants more war.
• Attacks continue on Middle East energy infrastructure.

About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).