IIR's October 20 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Israel says it will return to ceasefire after Gaza strikes		The Israeli military has said it will resume enforcement of the ceasefire in Gaza after launching air strikes on Sunday in response to what it called Hamas's "blatant violation" of the deal. Strikes began in southern Gaza after the Israeli military said "terrorists fired an anti-tank missile and gunfire" toward its troops in Rafah, killing two soldiers. Hamas said it was "unaware" of any clashes in the area under Israeli control. By evening, Israel said it had hit Hamas targets across Gaza.	BBC	IEA Report Wrestles with Global Oil and Gas Investment as Fields Decline
Trump calls on Russia and Ukraine to freeze war at current battle lines		United States President Donald Trump has called for Russia and Ukraine to freeze the war along current battle lines -- a proposal that would see Moscow keep large areas of Ukrainian territory. Trump told reporters late on Sunday that the two sides should just stop fighting and resolve the "details" over territory at future talks. The current front line runs through the Donbas region, an industrial hub. Ukraine has previously insisted on reclaiming all of its land. The US president, who had promised to swiftly end the war between Russia and Ukraine, is set to meet his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Hungary in the coming weeks.	Aljazeera	U.S. Gas Subdued as EU Moves Further from Russia
Oil prices slip on concerns over a supply glut		Oil prices dipped on Monday, pressured by worries over a global glut as U.S.-China trade tensions added to concerns about an economic slowdown and weaker energy demand. Oil traders' concerns have shifted from under-supply to over-supply, the futures contract structure of the global benchmark Brent showed. Both benchmarks declined more than 2% last week, marking their third consecutive weekly decline, partly due to the International Energy Agency's outlook for a growing supply glut in 2026.	Reuters	Oil Field Startup Boosts Brazil's Production Capacity
European markets rise during Monday trading as defense stocks lead gains Japan stocks close at record high after ruling LDP set to sign new coalition deal		European stocks were in positive territory on Monday, with the region's defense stocks leading gains, after a volatile few trading days. The pan-European Stoxx 60 was up about 0.6%, having closed Friday down 0.95% as concerns over the U.S. banking sector hit European sentiment. Last week, U.S. lenders Zions and Western Alliance disclosed issues tied to bad loans, leading shares of several financial heavyweights and regional banks lower, before they rebounded on Friday. Top White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett predicted that the government shutdown is "likely to end sometime this week." China's GDP rose 4.8% in the July-to-September period compared to a year ago, in line with expectations of analysts polled by Reuters. Japan equities climbed after the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Restoration Party effectively reached an agreement to form a coalition government.	CNBC	INEOS: 'Europe is Committing Industrial Suicide' U.S. EV Sales Slowdown Shakes Up GM's Plans
Natural Gas News: Bears in Control, But Cold Weather Could Challenge the Market View		U.S. natural gas futures are struggling to find sustained upside as fundamentals remain tilted toward oversupply and mild seasonal demand. While last week closed with a modest technical rebound off multi-month lows, the broader setup continues to favor bearish conditions, especially in the absence of a weather-driven demand catalyst or significant tightening in storage. Technical support at $2.938 held, but a true reversal won't come unless futures break above $3.585 resistance.	FX Empire	EIA: North America on Track to More Than Double LNG Capacity by 2029
Trump Lists Top Demands on China Before Trade Talks Resume		President Donald Trump listed rare earths, fentanyl and soybeans as the US's top issues with China just before the two sides return to the negotiating table and as a fragile trade truce nears expiration. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the US and China will hold talks later this week in Malaysia. That came after he met virtually with Vice Premier He Lifeng on Friday, discussions that Chinese state media described as a constructive exchange of views.	Bloomberg	Dallas Fed: Low Prices May Deter Push to Develop Lithium Mining
Is the Biofuel Boom Over?		Oil majors, including Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies, are scaling back or delaying biofuel projects despite earlier commitments to ramp up production. Shell's decision to cancel its massive Rotterdam biofuels plant highlights broader financial and market challenges facing the sector. Analysts warn that slower biofuel growth could undermine global decarbonisation targets, particularly for hard-to-abate industries like aviation. An August analysis by Reuters showed that out of 165 SAF projects over the past 12 years, only 36 have come to fruition. Among those 36, just 10 projects, or 6 percent of the total, have reported producing commercial volumes of SAF. The analysis found that if all the pending projects announced by airlines reached their maximum potential, it would only add 12 billion gallons of SAF production, or around 10 percent of what's needed to achieve the net-zero target. Several airlines have blamed the oil and gas industry for backtracking on its biofuel commitments.	OilPrice	Fed Funding Grid Support, But Consumers on the Line
Week 10/13/25 - 10/20/25		Even with a troubled peace in the Middle East as Israel recently launched air strikes in Gaza, the World wonders if a ceasefire will also come to Eastern Europe. For yet another meeting between President Trump and Putin is scheduled to be upcoming in Hungary in a few weeks, although early signs tilt to "no." Also, the U.S. and China will hold "Talks" regarding their "Trade War" later this week in Malaysia. Doubts abound if any agreements will be reached. For the moment, Mr. Oil Market remains depressed and in the control of the Bears with abundant supply, as Economic Markets remain volatile and uncertain amid concerns about the U.S. Banking sector and other markets like Autos. There are likely to be other "frights" in these Commodity Markets before Halloween.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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