Released December 21, 2020 | SUGAR LAND
en
Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--IIR's weekly Global Refining Report gives you the latest inside intelligence on outages, derates, delays and more. And now there is an interactive, dynamic Global Refining Capacity Dashboard available to further power your refinery capacity research.
And, IIR's Refining Global MarketIntel (RGMI) Platform -- the first of its kind in the industry -- is being launched in January 2021. Research, data, technology and analytics contribute to drive actionable MarketIntel, providing answers in today's uncertain crude fundamental world.
This platform is part of a more comprehensive IIR Global MarketIntel Platform.
Just ask iirteam@iirenergy.com for further information.
Market Commentary:
Merry tidings. The recent vaccine news and the start of inoculations are, for the most part, trumping all other political, monetary and fundamental news, and is reflected in the recent bullish runs in both the equity and commodity markets. California is entering a strict lockdown, reports the San Francisco Chronicle (nah, little worries or concerns); and England has begun an emergency lockdown, not to mention Brexit negotiators could not come to an agreement over the weekend, reports Bloomberg (nah, little worries or concerns.) Although, as Reuters reports, the U.S. dollar has rallied somewhat; "The dollar had been continuously sold off against a risk-on backdrop, and part of that was expectations of U.S. fiscal stimulus," said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank. "Now that has been largely agreed, we're seeing a classic case of 'buy the rumour, sell the fact', and dollar shorts are being unwound."
[Brent Forward Curve, Fundamental Analytics]
Speaking of a run of the bulls, Oil Price reports that Goldman sees $65 Brent in 2021, "Structural underinvestment in oil and gas will put upward pressure on oil prices, Goldman Sachs' commodities chief Jeffrey Currie told CNBC [last] week, commenting on commodity markets.
"All markets except wheat, Currie noted, are in a deficit, and this is certainly bullish for prices. But what he calls structural underinvestment also has its part to play for the future of prices. This is particularly true for oil, where the underinvestment is not just motivated by the price rout but by the shift towards renewable energy investments."
"This shift, however, may stimulate short-term demand for oil, Currie also noted, expecting it to rise over the next few years as so-called green infrastructure is being built. Afterward, as this infrastructure starts operating, there will be a negative impact on oil demand and, likely, prices."
"Oil started this week with a gain as the United States began vaccinating its frontline workers, but by the end of trade, prices were on the decline again as worry about excessive supply outweighed the positive news about the vaccines."
"A supply and demand update from OPEC also weighed on prices, as the cartel revised down its forecast for oil demand for this year and next. In addition, Baker Hughes' latest rig count report for the U.S. showed the most rig additions since January, fueling the oversupply worry. On top of it all, Libya has continued to boost its production, with the average daily hitting 1.28 million [barrels per day (BBL/d)] this month, up from 1.25 million (BBL/d) at the end of November."
"Despite the current challenges, Goldman is bullish on oil, expecting Brent to average $65 a barrel next year. The investment bank cited mass vaccinations and the limited increase in production from OPEC+ as factors driving the favorable trend."
"Oil inventories are also declining thanks to strengthening demand from Asia, which has added to the general optimism about oil prices next year."
Within this Global Refining Report, IIR hopes to shed some light on what is transpiring from a refinery operations perspective as the Global Refining Index (working with ADUs) illustrates what is happening to crude operationally available capacity and how refineries are de-rating and operating overall in these times. The Global Refinery Maps depict the COVID-19 impact as well as the non-COVID-19 outages. Area charts visualize COVID-19 impact and non-COVID-19 capacity offline in Asia, Europe and North America.
Petroleum Refining Highlights:
December 17, 2020 - U.S. PADD III. Valero has initiated restart procedures on the 92,000-BBL/d FCCU at its 230,000-BBL/d Saint Charles, Louisiana, refinery after it was shut down on December 14. The FCCU is expected to return to normal operations over the next 48 hours.
December 17, 2020 - U.S. PADD III. Valero, today, December 17, is in the process of restarting the 23,000-BBL/d CCR Reformer at its 95,000-BBL/d Three Rivers, Texas, refinery after completing planned repairs that began on November 28.
December 18, 2020 - Mexico. Pemex TRI continues with a planned turnaround at its 270,000-BBL/d Cadereyta, Mexico, refinery. The 120-ton-per-day SRU 5 and SRU 6 units began corrective repairs on November 23; the 6,000-BBL/d HF Alkylation 1 has been in preventive turnaround since November 17 while the 120,000-BBL/d Combinada 1 (Crude 1) has been offline since early May 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic risks and under preventive repairs since August 24 2020. The completion of the repair works are scheduled to occur by late December 2020/early January 2021 and depends on available labor force, which is reduced due to COVID-19 risk. The 150,000-BBL/d Combinada 2 (Crude 2) unit is running at 110,000-BBL/d; the remaining operational units are processing at approximately 40% of normal capacity.
December 18, 2020 - Venezuela. PDVSA continues to keep the 77,000-BBL/d FCC and associated units online at its 295,000-BBL/d Cardon Venezuela, refinery. Units are processing at low rates due to a shortage of feed and mechanical issues. The 70,000-BBL/d Crude 3 and 75,000-BBL/d Crude 4 remain offline due to utility issues and financial constraints, while the 75,000-BBL/d Crude Distillation 2 will remain offline until mid-January 2021; repairs are currently being performed.
December 18, 2020 - Spain. Repsol Petroleo SA continues processing at its 220,000-BBL/d Cartagena, Spain, refinery at approximately 80% capacity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The major turnaround on the Lubes Area will be carried out in the first-quarter 2021; while the Conversion Area will go offline for major repairs be performed by fourth-quarter 2021.
December 18, 2020 - Singapore. Singapore Refining Company Limited (SRC), on December 13 (previously reported December 9), restarted the CDU 3 Complex at its 290,000-BBL/d Jurong Island Refinery in Singapore. The units were under major maintenance turnaround since August 15. Major units in the CDU 3 Complex include the 60,000-BBL/d CDU 3, 40,000-BBL/d DHT 3, 9,000-BBL/d Gasoline Merox, 46,000-BBL/d RFCCU and 4,500-BBL/d Alkylation units.
December 4, 2020 - China. PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Company will perform a 55-day planned plant-wide turnaround at its 196,000-BBL/d Jilin China Refinery beginning May 20, 2021. Major units include the 76,000-BBL/d Crude Unit 1, 120,000-BBL/d Crude Unit 2, 20,000-BBL/d Delayed Coker, 8,000-BBL/d CCR, and 70,000-BBL/d combined capacity RFCCU. Expectations are to complete repairs and restart the units by July 14, 2021.
CLICK ON THE MAPS AND GRAPHS BELOW FOR A LARGER VIEW
Map of Global Refineries impacted by COVID-19/non-COVID -- Ongoing Offline Events
Global Refining Index Industrial Info's Global Refining Index (GRI) illustrates how much refinery capacity is offline versus normal operating capacity, illustrating with an operating percentage at a World Region - Market Region level the health of refineries (see graphics below).
North America Refining Index
Global Regional Available Operational Capacity. COVID-19 Impact & non-COVID-Related Outages
U.S. PADDs
Map of Global Refineries impacted by COVID-19/non-COVID - Future(Delayed) Offline Events
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
And, IIR's Refining Global MarketIntel (RGMI) Platform -- the first of its kind in the industry -- is being launched in January 2021. Research, data, technology and analytics contribute to drive actionable MarketIntel, providing answers in today's uncertain crude fundamental world.
This platform is part of a more comprehensive IIR Global MarketIntel Platform.
Just ask iirteam@iirenergy.com for further information.
Market Commentary:
Merry tidings. The recent vaccine news and the start of inoculations are, for the most part, trumping all other political, monetary and fundamental news, and is reflected in the recent bullish runs in both the equity and commodity markets. California is entering a strict lockdown, reports the San Francisco Chronicle (nah, little worries or concerns); and England has begun an emergency lockdown, not to mention Brexit negotiators could not come to an agreement over the weekend, reports Bloomberg (nah, little worries or concerns.) Although, as Reuters reports, the U.S. dollar has rallied somewhat; "The dollar had been continuously sold off against a risk-on backdrop, and part of that was expectations of U.S. fiscal stimulus," said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank. "Now that has been largely agreed, we're seeing a classic case of 'buy the rumour, sell the fact', and dollar shorts are being unwound."
[Brent Forward Curve, Fundamental Analytics]
Speaking of a run of the bulls, Oil Price reports that Goldman sees $65 Brent in 2021, "Structural underinvestment in oil and gas will put upward pressure on oil prices, Goldman Sachs' commodities chief Jeffrey Currie told CNBC [last] week, commenting on commodity markets.
"All markets except wheat, Currie noted, are in a deficit, and this is certainly bullish for prices. But what he calls structural underinvestment also has its part to play for the future of prices. This is particularly true for oil, where the underinvestment is not just motivated by the price rout but by the shift towards renewable energy investments."
"This shift, however, may stimulate short-term demand for oil, Currie also noted, expecting it to rise over the next few years as so-called green infrastructure is being built. Afterward, as this infrastructure starts operating, there will be a negative impact on oil demand and, likely, prices."
"Oil started this week with a gain as the United States began vaccinating its frontline workers, but by the end of trade, prices were on the decline again as worry about excessive supply outweighed the positive news about the vaccines."
"A supply and demand update from OPEC also weighed on prices, as the cartel revised down its forecast for oil demand for this year and next. In addition, Baker Hughes' latest rig count report for the U.S. showed the most rig additions since January, fueling the oversupply worry. On top of it all, Libya has continued to boost its production, with the average daily hitting 1.28 million [barrels per day (BBL/d)] this month, up from 1.25 million (BBL/d) at the end of November."
"Despite the current challenges, Goldman is bullish on oil, expecting Brent to average $65 a barrel next year. The investment bank cited mass vaccinations and the limited increase in production from OPEC+ as factors driving the favorable trend."
"Oil inventories are also declining thanks to strengthening demand from Asia, which has added to the general optimism about oil prices next year."
Within this Global Refining Report, IIR hopes to shed some light on what is transpiring from a refinery operations perspective as the Global Refining Index (working with ADUs) illustrates what is happening to crude operationally available capacity and how refineries are de-rating and operating overall in these times. The Global Refinery Maps depict the COVID-19 impact as well as the non-COVID-19 outages. Area charts visualize COVID-19 impact and non-COVID-19 capacity offline in Asia, Europe and North America.
Petroleum Refining Highlights:
December 17, 2020 - U.S. PADD III. Valero has initiated restart procedures on the 92,000-BBL/d FCCU at its 230,000-BBL/d Saint Charles, Louisiana, refinery after it was shut down on December 14. The FCCU is expected to return to normal operations over the next 48 hours.
December 17, 2020 - U.S. PADD III. Valero, today, December 17, is in the process of restarting the 23,000-BBL/d CCR Reformer at its 95,000-BBL/d Three Rivers, Texas, refinery after completing planned repairs that began on November 28.
December 18, 2020 - Mexico. Pemex TRI continues with a planned turnaround at its 270,000-BBL/d Cadereyta, Mexico, refinery. The 120-ton-per-day SRU 5 and SRU 6 units began corrective repairs on November 23; the 6,000-BBL/d HF Alkylation 1 has been in preventive turnaround since November 17 while the 120,000-BBL/d Combinada 1 (Crude 1) has been offline since early May 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic risks and under preventive repairs since August 24 2020. The completion of the repair works are scheduled to occur by late December 2020/early January 2021 and depends on available labor force, which is reduced due to COVID-19 risk. The 150,000-BBL/d Combinada 2 (Crude 2) unit is running at 110,000-BBL/d; the remaining operational units are processing at approximately 40% of normal capacity.
December 18, 2020 - Venezuela. PDVSA continues to keep the 77,000-BBL/d FCC and associated units online at its 295,000-BBL/d Cardon Venezuela, refinery. Units are processing at low rates due to a shortage of feed and mechanical issues. The 70,000-BBL/d Crude 3 and 75,000-BBL/d Crude 4 remain offline due to utility issues and financial constraints, while the 75,000-BBL/d Crude Distillation 2 will remain offline until mid-January 2021; repairs are currently being performed.
December 18, 2020 - Spain. Repsol Petroleo SA continues processing at its 220,000-BBL/d Cartagena, Spain, refinery at approximately 80% capacity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The major turnaround on the Lubes Area will be carried out in the first-quarter 2021; while the Conversion Area will go offline for major repairs be performed by fourth-quarter 2021.
December 18, 2020 - Singapore. Singapore Refining Company Limited (SRC), on December 13 (previously reported December 9), restarted the CDU 3 Complex at its 290,000-BBL/d Jurong Island Refinery in Singapore. The units were under major maintenance turnaround since August 15. Major units in the CDU 3 Complex include the 60,000-BBL/d CDU 3, 40,000-BBL/d DHT 3, 9,000-BBL/d Gasoline Merox, 46,000-BBL/d RFCCU and 4,500-BBL/d Alkylation units.
December 4, 2020 - China. PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Company will perform a 55-day planned plant-wide turnaround at its 196,000-BBL/d Jilin China Refinery beginning May 20, 2021. Major units include the 76,000-BBL/d Crude Unit 1, 120,000-BBL/d Crude Unit 2, 20,000-BBL/d Delayed Coker, 8,000-BBL/d CCR, and 70,000-BBL/d combined capacity RFCCU. Expectations are to complete repairs and restart the units by July 14, 2021.
CLICK ON THE MAPS AND GRAPHS BELOW FOR A LARGER VIEW
Global Refining Index Industrial Info's Global Refining Index (GRI) illustrates how much refinery capacity is offline versus normal operating capacity, illustrating with an operating percentage at a World Region - Market Region level the health of refineries (see graphics below).
North America Refining Index
U.S. PADDs
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
