Market Conditions Reduce Projected Spending on Refinery Turnarounds in 2010, a "Navigating the Currents of Change" Webcast on Industrialinfo.com

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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--U.S. refiners will spend an estimated $1.2 billion on turnaround maintenance projects in 2010, a sum that is significantly less than spending projections made only three months ago, according to Chris Paschall, Industrial Info's vice president of research for oil & gas industry markets.

"Projected spending of $1.2 billion this year on turnarounds is good news," Paschall told about 500 attendees at Industrial Info's "Twenty-Ten Industrial Market Outlook" in Houston on January 27. "It's a sizable increase over prior years' turnaround spending. But three months ago, Industrial Info was tracking nearly $1.5 billion in refinery turnarounds scheduled for 2010. So the current estimate, while good, is not as good as it was three months ago."


Click on image at right for details on refinery turnaround spending in prior years and projected 2010 turnaround spending.

The "Twenty-Ten Industrial Market Outlook" event coincides with Industrial Info's release of the 2010 Global Industrial Outlook, which highlights the industrial spending forecast for the coming year. Since 1993, IIR has published a forecast for capital and maintenance spending for the industrial market in North America, and the 2010 Outlook marks the fifth year of projecting spending estimates around the world.

Attendees at the Houston executive briefing represented a broad spectrum of industry: equipment vendors, distributors, manufacturing firms, engineering and construction firms, labor organizations, and financial service companies. The Houston event was the first of several spending-forecast events that Industrial Info will hold throughout North America in 2010. Future market outlook executive briefings are scheduled to take place in Denver, Colorado; Atlanta, Georgia; Baltimore, Maryland; Cleveland, Ohio; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

"The refining market is very dynamic right now, but not in ways that benefit refiners or companies that perform turnarounds," Paschall continued. "Even though nearly 2 million barrels per day of refining capacity was shut down in 2009, the U.S. market remains oversupplied with refined petroleum products. And an additional 1.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity is scheduled to come online this year in overseas markets, which will make a difficult situation even worse for refiners."

The diminished, yet still positive, outlook for refinery turnarounds demonstrates Industrial Info's rigorous quality-assurance principles. Like all of Industrial Info's 2010 industry outlooks, the Refinery Industry's outlook is driven by the company's commitment to reporting, confirming, and frequently updating capital and maintenance project-spending decisions as they are made by companies in the refining industry. Industrial Info's quality-assurance principle, which it trademarked as the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, ensures that clients are provided with the most accurate and current market intelligence on industrial project spending around the world, including capital projects, maintenance spending, analytics, and market forecasting.

Many refiners performed minor turnaround projects last year and, as a result, are pushing off major turnaround projects, Paschall observed. Although U.S. demand for gasoline is starting to trend upward, demand for distillate remains weak, a reflection of decreased demand from industrial manufacturers.

"Consumer confidence is critical to an improvement in the refinery business, and right now consumers are not very confident about the near-term future," the Industrial Info vice president said. "The refining industry may have to continue waiting for its recovery." On this edition of "Navigating the Currents of Change," join Mr. Paschall for a discussion of past and future turnaround spending in the Petroleum Refining Industry.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy related markets. For more than 26 years, Industrial Info has provided plant and project opportunity databases, market forecasts, high resolution maps, and daily industry news.