NERC Warns of Tests for U.S. Grid During Hot, Hot Summer

Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Forecasts for a hotter-than-normal summer across North America means regional grid operators will face challenges in keeping the lights on, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) said in a summer forecast.

Data from the European Union's (EU) weather agency, Copernicus, found that 2023 was the hottest year on record, beating the previous record set in 2016 by around four-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit.

EU data showed global temperatures were around 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the pre-industrial age. This year could be even hotter, putting a strain on grids as demand from cooling ramps up.

There's a strong correlation between electricity demand and temperature, the NERC said in a report published Wednesday.

Despite last year's record heat, NERC found there were few high-level emergency alerts issued and there were no major shocks to the grid. It wasn't necessarily adequate supplies that avoided shortfalls last year. Public appeals helped lower consumer demand as well.

Operators, however, "faced significant challenges" in avoiding disaster and this year could be even more trying.

"Weather services are expecting above-average summer temperatures across much of North America, potentially creating challenging summer grid conditions," NERC said. "Above-average seasonal temperatures can contribute to high peak demand as well as an increase in forced outages for generation and some bulk-power system (BPS) equipment."

A BPS is an interconnected grid made up of several power generation and transmission facilities.

Here in Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) can expect another year of complications. ERCOT saw peak demand of nearly 85,000 megawatts in mid-July, setting records for the operator.

Because of its reliance on wind and solar power capacity, NERC warned the area could face emergency conditions this summer because of the intermittent nature of the resources. This may be particularly challenging in evening hours, when solar capacity ebbs.

"Contributing to the elevated risk is a potential need, under certain grid conditions, to limit power transfers from South Texas into the San Antonio region," NERC's report read. "These grid conditions can occur when demand is high and wind and solar output is low in specific areas, straining the transmission system and necessitating South Texas generation curtailments and potential firm load shedding to avoid cascading outages."

In the Midwest and surrounding region, meanwhile, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) is expected to have sufficient capacity this summer, though it too could face headwinds during peak demand because of variable wind and solar capacity.

New rules outlined this year, meanwhile, by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) call on grid operators to conduct and periodically update long-term transmission planning over a 20-year time horizon to anticipate future needs.

Though wind and solar are on the rise, the U.S. Department of Energy expects fossil fuels to maintain their dominance. Natural gas accounts for about 42% of the total power generation across the country, compared with 23% for renewables. Coal, meanwhile, accounts for 16% of U.S. electricity generation, despite widespread efforts to decarbonize the energy sector.

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