New Coal Export Terminals Might Not be Required in Queensland

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Industrial Info is currently tracking 13 active coal export terminal projects in Queensland with a total investment value of more than $33.1 million (AUD$31.4 billion). This includes multiple grassroot projects at Wiggins Island, Balaclava Island, Abbot Point (China First Terminal) and Gladstone (Yarwun Terminal), as well as large expansions of the existing terminals at Hay Point and Abbot Point. If all of these projects are approved and constructed over the coming decade, an excess of 500 million tonnes per year would be added to the state's existing 250 million-tonne coal export capacity.

Dozens of coal companies would be celebrating if all of these projects were to go ahead. This would ensure that sufficient future capacity is available for the 50-plus new coal mines, which are currently under development in the state; however, a report by the Department of State Development, Infrastructure and Planning indicates that many of them may not be necessary. This report is now being used as evidence by various parties, including the World Wildlife Foundation, to argue that new coal export facilities are not required.

The report, titled "Great Barrier Reef Ports Strategy Economic Analysis," was released late last year, and it states that some of the existing ports in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region are currently operating at between 45% and 60% of the total capacity. This may be news to many of the junior mining companies in Queensland that have been struggling to develop projects due to a lack of viable export facilities.

The existing ports along the GBR are heavily focused on coal exports, with 81% of the 171.1 million tonnes of total export volume through these ports attributed to coal. With upward of 250 million tonnes of total capacity currently available, it would seem as though simple improvements in efficiency and capacity utilization would be all that is needed to cover future demand. While the potential 80 million tonnes per year of current excess capacity may seem sufficient, the total new capacity, which could potentially come online over the next decade, shows that the current excess capacity would not stretch anywhere near far enough.

If we look at the potential capacities of just a handful of the 89 potential new mines and expansions that are currently being tracked by Industrial Info in the state--which include Adani Mining's (Brisbane, Australia) Carmichael project, Hancock Coal's (Brisbane) Alpha and Kevin's Corner projects, and the Macmines Austasia's (Brisbane, Australia) Chinastone project--we can see that without any new export terminals being developed over the next decade, Queensland's existing infrastructure will reach a chocking point very quickly. These four projects alone will add as much as 135 million tonnes of coal production to the state each year, easily accounting for the current 80 million tonnes of excess capacity.

If dozens of other new coal projects, which are currently in development, are added to this, it becomes clear that this would improve the utilization of the existing export infrastructure. This would be very beneficial in the short-term; however, if we look at the longer-term, at least a proportion of the new export terminal projects that are currently in development will need to proceed if Queensland continues to grow the coal sector.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, and eight offices outside of North America, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities.