Nuclear is Necessary, But It Needs a Push, Clean-Energy Advocates Say

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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Congressional leaders and representatives from the utility sector recently said nuclear power was an essential part of the energy transition, though there are concerns about the pace of new developments.

"In order to achieve 100% decarbonization in the power sector while keeping prices low for consumers, we need reliable, carbon-free resources that can sustain output for long periods of time," said Frank Pallone (D-New Jersey), the ranking member on the House Energy and Commerce Committee: "Nuclear power can meet this test."

Nuclear power is returning to vogue more than a decade after the meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan in 2011. Then, the largest earthquake ever to hit Japan led to a tsunami that flooded the facility and led to a loss of cooling for the nuclear core. More than 100,000 people were evacuated and economies of scale, such as Germany, vowed to do away with nuclear energy.

Germany is in the process of shutting down its three remaining nuclear power plants as it embraces conventional renewable energy strategies in pursuit of net-zero ambitions.

A mid-pandemic review from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), however, found that nuclear energy was a "secure and reliable low-emission electricity," with 2021 marking the year for the second-highest annual additions over the last decade.

As of 2021, the IAEA estimated nuclear power made up for about 10% of total electric power--and more than a quarter of the world's low-carbon electricity. Global nuclear capacity expanded 13% between 2012 and 2021, though North America was the only major region to see a decline in power generation as aging plants retire.

Click on the image at right for an IAEA graph showing regional nuclear power capacity from 1954 to 2021.

Something has to give. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that coal-fired electric power generation will be far less than it was over the first few months of 2022. Nuclear additions, meanwhile, are relatively stable.

"We forecast about the same amount of nuclear generation in spring 2023, 1% more than during the same months last year," the EIA stated.

Some of the balance is related to timing. The retirement of the Palisades nuclear power facility in Michigan will be offset by some degree by the Vogtle plant in Georgia, which is expected to come online in July. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project Database can click here for a report on the Vogtle project.

Vogtle marks the first addition to the U.S. nuclear power fleet since 2016. The IAEA said Asia, and most notably China, is leading the pack, however.

"Only China is building nuclear energy in significant amounts, and even its efforts are short of climate scale and speed," Armond Cohen, the executive director of the Clean Air Task Force, told congressional leaders. Cohen was among three witnesses who testified Tuesday, April 18, before the House Subcommittee on Energy, Climate, and Grid Security of the Committee on Energy and Commerce.

Cohen said it was "the best of times and the worst of times" for nuclear energy. On the positive front, the dramatic slump in energy demand during the COVID-19 pandemic opened room for the energy resources necessary to displace fossil fuels.

Last year's Inflation Reduction Act, meanwhile, set aside $700 million in funds to build the next generation of nuclear facilities.

"On the other hand, nuclear energy has stagnated globally, and recent custom-built large light water projects such as the Vogtle 3 and 4 plants in Georgia, a half decade late and two times over budget, have rightly led critics to question whether nuclear energy is a viable pathway," Cohen said.

EIA data show that fossil fuels still account for the bulk of electric power generation on the U.S. grid. Combined, natural gas and coal will account for 56% of the market share this year and 54% next year.

Renewables--wind, solar and hydro--account for 24% of the mix this year and 26% next year, while nuclear represents only a fifth of total power capacity.

Pallone, meanwhile, said the power sector is making strides in the transition to a cleaner future, but it still accounted for 28% of total carbon emissions in 2022.

"Nuclear power plays an important role in producing carbon-free power for the electric grid," he said. "Last year, nuclear power accounted for nearly half of all carbon-free power generated in the United States."

Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK) (Charlotte, North Carolina), which has the largest nuclear energy fleet in the country, said it is struggling to meet its net-zero ambitions without more nuclear capacity. Already, nuclear energy accounts for about 80% of the company's carbon-free power, though it's been relatively stable compared to the rise in renewables.

"We cannot achieve the nation's carbon reduction goals without nuclear power," said Regis Repko, a senior vice president at Duke.

Duke operates 11 nuclear power units across six sites in the Carolinas, delivering about half of the power for the region. The utility, however, said it needs to build up eight more gigawatts of new nuclear capacity to meet its goals of a net-zero portfolio by 2050.

Repko, meanwhile, fretted over the geopolitical implications of nuclear power. Russia is the single-largest supplier of nuclear fuel and there is not enough existing capacity from other suppliers to do the heavy lifting.

As with natural gas, meanwhile, Russia is tacitly weaponizing nuclear power by military threats to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, stoking fears of a repeat of the Chernobyl disaster.

Meanwhile, as with the Vogtle plant in Georgia, which is overdue and over budget, nuclear power requires some heavy lifting at the start.

Analysis from Stanford University finds that capital expenditures for initial startups are 63% more than for similar developments for coal and 22% for natural gas. Costs in the U.S. power sector are similar to Europe's, but 30% higher than China, the global leader.

On just emissions alone, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector in advanced economies would be 20% higher in the last 50 years without nuclear power.

For both the international community, and for the United States, there are calls for a greater emphasis on nuclear power, despite some of the lingering safety concerns.

"The U.S. can be at the center of this transformative effort," Cohen said. "But more ambitious action is needed at home, and on the global stage, to create a global nuclear ecosystem that can deliver hundreds of gigawatts per year, roughly 10 times the current global build rate."

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Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).