Released June 23, 2023 | SUGAR LAND
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(Editor's note: This article includes excerpts from a blog by IIR Energy and Refinitiv, a provider of financial technology, data and expertise.)
June 23, 2023--Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--In this second in a series of blogs produced in a collaboration between IIR Energy and Refinitiv, we discuss anticipated refining capacity changes across the globe and consider their potential impact on market dynamics.
Hillary Stevenson, IIR Energy's Senior Director of Energy Market Intelligence, explains that the company is tracking more than two dozen grassroots refinery projects under construction across Africa, Asia and Latin America. Analysis of these projects reveals that a projected volume of 1.4 million barrels per day (BBL/d) is already nearing completion, while nearly 3 million BBL/d capacity could be online as early as 2025.
Click on the image at right for a graph showing refinery projects recently completed and under construction.
Stevenson further points out that 2023 itself is a significant year for refining capacity: "Several long-awaited projects--including Dangote, Al Zour and Karbala, to name a few--are anticipated to complete this year and this will bring global refining back to 2019 levels."
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Petroleum Refining Project Database can click here for a list of detailed reports for projects at the Dangote Lekki facility in Nigeria. For more information, see May 11, 2023, article - Nigeria's Dangote Readies to Open Africa's Largest Refinery
Subscribers can click here for the Mina Al Zour project reports and click here for the Karbala project reports.
Click on the image at right for an IIR Energy chart showing global installed refinery capacity through 2030.
Future capacity beyond 2025 is subject to final investment decisions (FIDs), which could still be impacted by potential delays and/or cancellations.
Drilling down: a snapshot of some specific refinery projects
Some projects worth noting include:
Refinitiv's Mitchell comments on the potential impact of these developments on global markets and flows: "Dynamic capacity scenarios impact crude and fuel markets in different ways. In this snapshot alone, we have looked briefly at Nigeria, Mexico and Kuwait--three sophisticated producers that are all poised to bring new refining capacity to the global playing field. This will have a knock-on effect, not least of all in terms of putting other, less efficient refineries out of business and driving increased competition in this space."
Against this dynamic backdrop, industry players need complete, reliable and up-to-date data and analytics if they are to fully understand the impact of capacity and other changes.
To empower stakeholders to develop a more holistic view of the industry, Refinitiv and IIR Energy have collaborated to create a powerful combination of detailed operational knowledge and accurate, trusted data: IIR's PetroCast Live, available on the Refinitiv platform, delivers comprehensive, real-time data on global refining operations, enabling users to more accurately predict the price of crude and refined products and make better, more informed decisions.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI database can click here for all project reports mentioned in this article and click here for the related plant profiles.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
June 23, 2023--Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--In this second in a series of blogs produced in a collaboration between IIR Energy and Refinitiv, we discuss anticipated refining capacity changes across the globe and consider their potential impact on market dynamics.
Hillary Stevenson, IIR Energy's Senior Director of Energy Market Intelligence, explains that the company is tracking more than two dozen grassroots refinery projects under construction across Africa, Asia and Latin America. Analysis of these projects reveals that a projected volume of 1.4 million barrels per day (BBL/d) is already nearing completion, while nearly 3 million BBL/d capacity could be online as early as 2025.
Stevenson further points out that 2023 itself is a significant year for refining capacity: "Several long-awaited projects--including Dangote, Al Zour and Karbala, to name a few--are anticipated to complete this year and this will bring global refining back to 2019 levels."
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Petroleum Refining Project Database can click here for a list of detailed reports for projects at the Dangote Lekki facility in Nigeria. For more information, see May 11, 2023, article - Nigeria's Dangote Readies to Open Africa's Largest Refinery
Subscribers can click here for the Mina Al Zour project reports and click here for the Karbala project reports.
Future capacity beyond 2025 is subject to final investment decisions (FIDs), which could still be impacted by potential delays and/or cancellations.
Drilling down: a snapshot of some specific refinery projects
Some projects worth noting include:
- Dangote Group's Lekki Refinery in Nigeria--which will consume local crude supply and has been designed to reduce imports of refined products into the country--will be the biggest refinery in Africa and will increase the country's refining capacity to 3.24 million BBL/d. The refinery will have one single 650,000-BBL/d crude distillation unit which, once commissioned, will be the biggest unit by capacity in the world. Stevenson notes, "The market is watching this start-up very closely, especially as it pertains to how much crude it will process. Our research shows that the plant is expected to operate at 50% capacity until downstream units are operational, which may not be until 2025."
- The Olmeca refinery (previously Dos Bocas) in Tabasco, Mexico, is a 340,000-BBL/d project that will process local crude. The refinery is an ambitious project and has experienced a number of challenges to date. Jim Mitchell, head of Americas Oil Analysts, Refinitiv, explains further: "This project has been highly politicized since inception and has been impacted by issues ranging from theft to maintenance challenges. In addition, distribution challenges persist--neither the local docks nor the pipeline infrastructure can readily facilitate efficient distribution." Subscribers can click here for the Olmeca project report.
- Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company's (KIPIC) 615,000-BBL/d Al Zour Refinery in Kuwait began construction in 2016 but has experienced several delays. Two of the planned three units have been commissioned but have experienced operational issues. These have delayed the commissioning of the third crude train, expected later this year, according to IIR Energy. This world-class project can switch feedstocks based on economics, thus reducing operational and price risk. It will consume local crude supply.
Refinitiv's Mitchell comments on the potential impact of these developments on global markets and flows: "Dynamic capacity scenarios impact crude and fuel markets in different ways. In this snapshot alone, we have looked briefly at Nigeria, Mexico and Kuwait--three sophisticated producers that are all poised to bring new refining capacity to the global playing field. This will have a knock-on effect, not least of all in terms of putting other, less efficient refineries out of business and driving increased competition in this space."
Against this dynamic backdrop, industry players need complete, reliable and up-to-date data and analytics if they are to fully understand the impact of capacity and other changes.
To empower stakeholders to develop a more holistic view of the industry, Refinitiv and IIR Energy have collaborated to create a powerful combination of detailed operational knowledge and accurate, trusted data: IIR's PetroCast Live, available on the Refinitiv platform, delivers comprehensive, real-time data on global refining operations, enabling users to more accurately predict the price of crude and refined products and make better, more informed decisions.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI database can click here for all project reports mentioned in this article and click here for the related plant profiles.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
