Released March 11, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Energy demand is rising at alarming rates across the U.S. but nowhere is it accelerating as quickly as in Texas, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) says it has received requests for 99 gigawatts (GW) of new grid connections from large users including bitcoin miners, data centers and others this year, according to a Bloomberg report. That amounts to more than double the requests from this time in 2024.
Data centers and the general electrification of the economy through electric vehicles (EVs) and transitioning to electricity for home heating and industrial use are other driving factors. The current Texas Legislature is wrestling with ways to keep up with that demand while equitably distributing the cost.
Population growth is another issue said Ryan Scott, vice president of policy at HBW Resources. He and energy podcaster and newsletter author Doug Lewin led REAL Houston's Texas Energy Policy Webinar on March 6. Scott said, "Texas sees 1,300 new residents a day--about half a million people a year."
Both peak use and overall use are expanding rapidly, with Scott listing yearly peak demands of 57.6 GW in 2000, 65.7 GW in 2010, 74.8 in 2019 and 85.6 in 2024. ERCOT is expecting a 75% increase between now and 2030, he said.
Overall use is up also, said Lewin, with 2024's total reaching 460 terawatt hours compared to 2023's 440 terawatt hours. The last time power use rose as quickly as it has since 2019, he said, was after World War II, with population growth and the rapid adoption of refrigerated central air conditioning. Year-over-year growth in the most recent 25 years has been about 2%, and now it is reaching 8-9%.
While Lewin said he is a renewable energy advocate, he pointed out that all forms of power generation must be on the table to meet demand. Perhaps the most logical form of base power for Texas, with its hydrocarbon resources, would be natural gas turbines.
But there is a huge supply-chain issue with that, he said, quoting a Latitude Media story. "Now you're in this context of rapidly rising demand, and you can't get gas turbines until the 2030s," with current orders scheduled for 2030-2032.
Because of that, "Seventy-five percent of what we put on the grid in the last three years, (is) over 30 GW of solar and storage" capacity. Lewin says the new solar capacity has kept the state from having to limit power use on peak days, because the same sun that creates that heat also energizes the solar panels. At that time of day the solar power is so abundant on the grid "that your fuel is effectively free. When the sun is high in the sky, prices are probably zero."
It is therefore ironic, in his view, that the Legislature has put forth SB 819, which he said was aimed at requiring onerous environmental studies before building new wind or solar farms. He also said that, with the delays in gas turbines, renewables are the only option for immediate growth.
Another bill would require that 50% of all new power added to the grid must come from natural gas. So, Lewin said, if that law were passed, the fact that no one can get gas turbines for seven years means they can't build any other generation option either.
Yet another bill would require large power users to build their own sources, so they could be removed from the grid under peak use times. Also, Lewin said, it would change the infrastructure billing to more equitably spread it out. Currently, large users can mitigate or even eliminate infrastructure charges by reducing power use during peak periods in summer months. This has led, he noted, to homeowners seeing a 25% increase in their infrastructure charges over the last four years, while those of large industry have only risen by 1-2% over the same period.
Lewin and Scott said it is important to remember that neither bill has been passed, and any bill that did make it to the voting stage might change appreciably.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
Data centers and the general electrification of the economy through electric vehicles (EVs) and transitioning to electricity for home heating and industrial use are other driving factors. The current Texas Legislature is wrestling with ways to keep up with that demand while equitably distributing the cost.
Population growth is another issue said Ryan Scott, vice president of policy at HBW Resources. He and energy podcaster and newsletter author Doug Lewin led REAL Houston's Texas Energy Policy Webinar on March 6. Scott said, "Texas sees 1,300 new residents a day--about half a million people a year."
Both peak use and overall use are expanding rapidly, with Scott listing yearly peak demands of 57.6 GW in 2000, 65.7 GW in 2010, 74.8 in 2019 and 85.6 in 2024. ERCOT is expecting a 75% increase between now and 2030, he said.
Overall use is up also, said Lewin, with 2024's total reaching 460 terawatt hours compared to 2023's 440 terawatt hours. The last time power use rose as quickly as it has since 2019, he said, was after World War II, with population growth and the rapid adoption of refrigerated central air conditioning. Year-over-year growth in the most recent 25 years has been about 2%, and now it is reaching 8-9%.
While Lewin said he is a renewable energy advocate, he pointed out that all forms of power generation must be on the table to meet demand. Perhaps the most logical form of base power for Texas, with its hydrocarbon resources, would be natural gas turbines.
But there is a huge supply-chain issue with that, he said, quoting a Latitude Media story. "Now you're in this context of rapidly rising demand, and you can't get gas turbines until the 2030s," with current orders scheduled for 2030-2032.
Because of that, "Seventy-five percent of what we put on the grid in the last three years, (is) over 30 GW of solar and storage" capacity. Lewin says the new solar capacity has kept the state from having to limit power use on peak days, because the same sun that creates that heat also energizes the solar panels. At that time of day the solar power is so abundant on the grid "that your fuel is effectively free. When the sun is high in the sky, prices are probably zero."
It is therefore ironic, in his view, that the Legislature has put forth SB 819, which he said was aimed at requiring onerous environmental studies before building new wind or solar farms. He also said that, with the delays in gas turbines, renewables are the only option for immediate growth.
Another bill would require that 50% of all new power added to the grid must come from natural gas. So, Lewin said, if that law were passed, the fact that no one can get gas turbines for seven years means they can't build any other generation option either.
Yet another bill would require large power users to build their own sources, so they could be removed from the grid under peak use times. Also, Lewin said, it would change the infrastructure billing to more equitably spread it out. Currently, large users can mitigate or even eliminate infrastructure charges by reducing power use during peak periods in summer months. This has led, he noted, to homeowners seeing a 25% increase in their infrastructure charges over the last four years, while those of large industry have only risen by 1-2% over the same period.
Lewin and Scott said it is important to remember that neither bill has been passed, and any bill that did make it to the voting stage might change appreciably.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
