U.S. Could Reduce CO2 Emissions to 1990 Levels in 2012, as Gas and Renewables Make Their Mark

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Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Some energy industry observers expect that U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will fall back to 1990 levels in 2012. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), energy related carbon emissions fell by 7.8% during the first quarter of 2012, which is 8.5% lower than they were for the first quarter of 2010.

In addition to increased natural gas usage in the Power sector, increases in generation from renewable energy sources also helped to lower power emissions in 2011. Renewable sourced generation was 21.7% higher in 2011 than in 2010. Hydroelectric power was the leading renewable energy with generation levels up about 25% aided by good rainfall and water run-off.

Wind power was second in increased generation levels, increasing by 26.5% and contributing 25 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) more electricity compared to hydropower's increase of almost 65 billion kWh.

The EIA reports that energy related CO2 emissions in the U.S. were 2.4% lower in 2011 than in 2010. Emissions were also 9.1% lower than they were in 2007 when they hit the peak level.

Reasons ascribed to the downward trend include: reduced energy demand due to the sluggish economy; reduction in demand for gasoline and other motor fuels because of high oil prices; low natural gas prices and environmental protection agency (EPA) regulations are resulting in a switch from coal to natural gas in the electric generation sector (CO2 emissions from natural gas are about 50% lower than those from coal) and, to a lesser extent, increased consumption of renewable energy has decreased fossil fuel consumption.

The absolute increase in firing with natural gas, as a result of the shale gas glut and lower prices, saw CO2 emissions from natural gas increase by 2.4% and 12% since 2006.

Even though electricity demand was up by 1.2% in 2011, CO2 emissions from electrical power generation were down 4.6% due to the switch from coal to gas. This trend is continuing in 2012 as coal's share of power feed continues to decline. Energy intensity (energy consumption per dollar of gross domestic product) declined by 2.1% in 2011 as the U.S. economy grew by only 1.7%.

Coal consumption grew 3.3% in Europe in 2011. It was driven by the fact that under European regulations it came out as the most profitable power feed. The U.S. dynamics of power generation are opposite to those of Europe. While lower CO2 emissions may please some, making the domestic fleet of electric generator less diverse can result in future problems, such as high electric process or even inadequate supplies of electricity, concludes the EIA.

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