U.S. Energy Future Should Include More Efficiency, CCS Deployment, and Advanced Nuclear Power

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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--A more aggressive deployment of existing energy efficiency technology is the least costly and best near-term means to moderate our nation's demand for energy, especially over the next decade, according to "America's Energy Future," a report issued last week by the National Academy of Science, National Academy of Engineering, and the National Research Council.

Energy-intensive industries, such as chemicals and petroleum, pulp and paper, iron and steel, and cement, could reduce their energy usage by 14% to 22% by 2020, partly by upgrading to more efficient technologies. Ironmakers and steelmakers, for example, could cut energy use through installation of electric arc furnace melting, and blast-furnace slag-heat recovery. Changing the chemistry of cement and upgrading to an advanced dry kiln process would slash energy use by cement-makers.

But the report recognized that employing more energy-efficient technology, while important, is only one part of a broader portfolio approach to meeting future U.S. energy needs. "There is no technological 'silver bullet' at present that could transform the U.S. energy system [by creating] a substantial new source of clean and reasonably priced domestic energy," the report said. "Instead, the transformation will require a balanced portfolio of existing (though perhaps modified) technologies, multiple new energy technologies, and new energy-efficiency and energy-use patterns. This will, in turn, require a sustained national will and commitment of resources to develop and deploy these assets where needed."

The researchers looked at energy technologies that offered the best prospects of fully maturing during three time periods: 2008-20, 2020-35, and 2035-50. The report seeks to inform policymakers about technology options that will transform energy production, distribution, and consumption in ways that also increase sustainability, support long-term economic prosperity, promote energy security, and reduce negative environmental consequences.

"America's Energy Future" notes that there has been a "steadily growing consensus that our nation must fundamentally transform the ways in which it produces, distributes, and consumes energy." This transformation "will be an enormous undertaking," requiring "fundamental changes, structural as well as behavioral, among producers and consumers alike." But a sustained, collaborative effort by the public and private sectors over the next generation can transition the U.S. to "a more sustainable and secure energy system."

Technology, while important, cannot accomplish this transformation itself. New public policies and regulations on energy production, distribution, and use also are needed. "Our energy system, after all, is much more than a set of technological arrangements; it is also a deep manifestation of society's economic, social, and political arrangements," the report said. And the changes they recommend will take time: "The overall energy enterprise, like a massive ship, will be slow to change course."

In electricity generation, the report said that the U.S. "has many promising options for obtaining new supplies of electricity and changing its supply mix during the next two to three decades, especially if carbon capture and storage and evolutionary nuclear technologies can be deployed at required scales. However, the deployment of these new supply technologies is very likely to result in higher consumer prices for electricity," a matter of some sensitivity to lawmakers and regulators given the prolonged recession.

The U.S. also "urgently" needs to expand and modernize its electric transmission and distribution system to "enhance reliability and security, accommodate changes in load growth and electricity demand, and enable the deployment of energy efficiency and supply technologies, especially intermittent (resources) wind and solar energy."

Returning to electricity generation, "America's Energy Future" said "substantial" reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector could be achieved over the next two to three decades through "a portfolio approach involving the widespread deployment of energy efficiency technologies; renewable energy; coal, natural gas, and biomass with carbon capture and storage; and nuclear technologies."

Regarding carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), the researchers noted that electricity demand and carbon dioxide prices will critically affect deployment of CCS technologies. "If the CO2 price is zero and electricity demand stays relatively flat (as a result of increasing end-use efficiency, for instance), hardly any of the existing pulverized coal plants will be retired or retrofitted and very few new plants will be built."

The authors of the report emphasized the critical need to demonstrate the technological and commercial viability of CCS and new nuclear power plants, which they termed "key" elements of the future U.S. energy portfolio. The researchers advocated building 15 to 20 CCS projects, both retrofits and greenfield projects, featuring a "variety of feedstocks, generation technologies, carbon capture strategies, and geological storage locations" before 2020. The researchers advocated building about five new nuclear power stations during the next decade.

"A failure to demonstrate the viability of these technologies during the next decade would greatly restrict options to reduce the electricity sector's CO2 emissions over succeeding decades," the report warned. "The urgency of getting started on these demonstrations to clarify future deployment options cannot be overstated."

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