BP: World Not Running Out of Oil & Gas

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Written by Martin Lynch, European News Editor for Industrial Info (Galway, Ireland)--Technological advances will ensure that there is no danger of running out of oil and gas in the decades to come, according to BP plc (NYSE:BP) (London, England).

The company's Technology Outlook postulates that advances in technology will keep energy supplies both abundant and affordable, out to 2050 and beyond. BP claimed that just applying "today's best practice" technologies to discover oil and gas resources could significantly increase proved reserves from 2.9 trillion barrels of oil equivalent to 4.8 trillion barrels--nearly double the 2.5 trillion barrels required to meet projected cumulative global demand through to 2050.

"Technology opens up a whole range of possibilities across the energy sector," said Bob Dudley, chief executive of BP Group. "It can bring great value to consumers and businesses, and it can also disrupt and challenge existing models. Today, for the first time, we are sharing our analysis of energy technologies and the options they present society in the quest for an abundant, sustainable and lower-carbon energy future."

The 80-page Outlook brings together previously internal BP analysis and the work of other noted business and academic experts, setting out technology and policy choices governments and industry can make with regard to energy resources, oil and gas supply, power generation, transport, and options for reducing carbon emissions.

In oil and gas, BP claimed that the most significant change to resource opportunities during the past 10 years had been the advent of production from shale and tight rock, more than doubling total potentially accessible oil and gas in discovered reservoirs. Other key technology levers included enhanced oil recovery--the biggest contributor to increasing recoverable oil volumes--subsurface imaging, and operational improvement through the use of digital technologies, such as sensors, robotics, and supercomputers for data analysis.

In the power sector, with a modest carbon price of $40 per tonne of CO2, gas gains an advantage over coal, while at higher carbon prices, wind and solar power become more competitive, providing there is sufficient back-up capability. It claimed that gas-fired power plants fitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to store CO2 underground can become competitive with an $80 per tonne carbon price by 2050.

Looking at the transport sector, BP pointed to the constant improvements in the fuel efficiency of vehicles. To 2035, where liquid-powered vehicles still dominate, it estimated that the average efficiency of new light-duty vehicles will improve 2% to 3% per year as a result of increased hybridization and improved powertrains, combined with advanced fuels and lubricants. By 2050, with advances in battery technology, electric vehicles are likely to be competitive, while fuel cell vehicle costs still have further to go.

Digital technology advances are already having a major impact on the energy sector.

"Digital technologies--such as advanced sensors, data analytics, robotics and automation, enabled by supercomputing--have the most widespread potential to drive change and make energy supply and consumption safer, more reliable, more efficient and more cost-effective" argued David Eyton, BP Group head of technology. "These technologies are already transforming the oil and gas industry, and the longer term possibilities are frankly difficult to imagine. We are also staying close to developments in biosciences and advanced materials, which could lead to extraordinary improvements in the performance of fossil and non-fossil energy systems, including batteries, solar conversion and hydrogen as a fuel."

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