CEC Predicts China's Power Consumption to Grow 4% to 6% Year-over-Year in Fourth-Quarter 2012

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Beijing, China)--Following the rebounding of macro economic growth in China, its power demand will see a small increase. China's power consumption is predicted to rise 4% to 6% year-over-year to about 1.23 trillion to 1.25 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in the fourth quarter 2012, and the total power consumption in 2012 will be about 4.94 trillion kWh, an increase of about 5% year-over-year. The total installed capacity is expected to reach about 1,140 gigawatts by the end of 2012, according to an analysis report issued by China Electricity Council (CEC) on October 30, 2012.

In the first three quarters of 2012, China's power supply and demand maintained an overall balance, with surpluses in some local areas. Due to the slowdown in economic growth, the growth in social power consumption has continued to decline, especially the growth of power consumption in industrial and manufacturing sectors. But the growth in the third industry and households continued to increase quickly.

In the first three quarters, the accumulative social power consumption of China reached 3.69 trillion kWh, an increase of 4.8% year-over-year, which was 7.1 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year. The growth in the first, second and third quarters were 6.8%, 4.3% and 3.6% year-over-year, respectively.

As coal stockpiles in key thermal power plants nationwide are at high levels, and most key hydropower plants are in good water storage, the CEC predicts that power supply and demand in the fourth quarter will maintain an overall balance. There will be some surpluses of power supply in the northeast and northwest regions. There will be difficulties in the wind power system of northeast, north and northwest regions during the heating season in winter. Due to a shortage of natural gas supply, there may be shortages in some areas during the peak hours.

The utilization of power equipment in 2012 is predicted to be 4,450 to 4,550 hours; the utilization of thermal power equipment will be 4,900 to 5,000 hours. Both of them are lower than the figures in 2011.

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