Cochilco Forecasts Strong Chilean Copper Output through 2033

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Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Chile will reach two peak outputs in 2027 and 2033. Cochilco forecasts a natural decline in ore grades and the maturing of assets over 2028-31. Chile will continue to produce more than 20% of the world's copper.

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Twin Peaks Ahead for Copper

Cochilco (Santiago, Chile), a state-owned mining agency, forecasted Chile's copper output through 2034. Based on published numbers, Chile would experience two production peaks over the next decade, with 5.97 million tons of copper in 2027 and 6.06 million tons in 2033. For 2026, Cochilco expects a production of 5.61 million tons.

For 2027, Cochilco forecasts an increase in copper production, driven by the ramp-up of projects that began operations in the last few years.

However, volumes are expected to decline between 2028 and 2031 to a low of 5.43 million tons in 2030, due to a decline in large-scale ore-grade operations in Chile. Cochilco sees the decline as unavoidable due to aging operations and long project maturation timelines.

"This behavior is not a response to transitory shocks, but to restrictions inherent in the mining cycle," Cochilco said in a press release.

Industrial Info is tracking 264 copper projects in Chile worth more than US$71 billion. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Metals & Minerals Project databases can learn more about these developments--including capacities, investment values and necessary equipment--from a detailed list of project reports.

Production will rebound after 2030, thanks to the completion of expansion and replacement projects, and the construction of greenfield projects, according to Cochilco's analysis.

Chile to Maintain Leading Global Role

Copper concentrate volumes are expected to continue to dominate Chile's production, rising from 4.45 million tons in 2026 to 4.98 million tons in 2034. Their share of total volumes will increase from 79.3% in 2027 to 84.9% by 2034.

As a result, volumes of copper cathodes will decline from 1.17 million tons in 2026 to 890,000 tons in 2034. This is due to the depletion of leachable oxidized minerals, and an investment portfolio focused on the development and optimization of sulfide projects.

Copper cathodes are a finished product, flat plates of copper that can be used by manufacturers, while copper concentrate has to undergo refining procedures to be purified.

Chile will remain the world's largest copper producer over the next decade, accounting for about 21.5% of global output at its lowest level in 2030, rising to 27.3% by 2034, its highest level. Over the period analyzed, Cochilco forecasts that the Democratic Republic of Congo will remain in second place and Peru in third.

Cochilco's analysis suggests that current investment levels will allow Chile to maintain production levels, but they will be insufficient to drive significant output growth. Instead, the agency suggests promoting policies that ease permit requirements for project development.

Copper prices hit a new record of US$6 per pound amid supply concerns and geopolitical tensions. Prices have since dropped below US$6. Cochilco forecasted the average of US$4.55 per pound for 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Chile will reach a peak copper output of 6.06 million tons in 2033.
• By 2034, Chile will account for 27.3% of global copper output.
• Current investments will not allow for a significant production boost.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR News Intelligence) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).