Electricity Demand in India to Reach 3,168 Terawatt-Hours in 2050

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources India (Delhi, India)--With rapid industrial growth and development of infrastructure in India, the demand for power in the country is expected to grow to 3,168 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2050, according to a recent report on India's power sector from the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France).

The report emphasizes the technical challenges faced by the electricity sector in India, caused by the low efficiencies of age-old thermal power plants, continued dependence on coal for power generation, and inadequate transmission and distribution networks.

The report indicates that electricity demand in India will grow to about 3,168 TWh in 2050, from approximately 1,000 TWh at present. On the production side (industry, commerce and agriculture), significant changes are expected as the economy grows nearly eightfold. This implies a massive expansion in the commercial and services sector, a significant growth in the country's manufacturing capability, and more limited growth in the agriculture sector.

IEA has considered two different scenarios to analyze the power sector: the 'Baseline Scenario' indicates expected developments on the basis of the energy policies that have been implemented or planned for implementation, while a 'BLUE Map Scenario' is target-driven and aims to halve CO2 emissions by 2050, compared to 2005 levels. A global carbon price of $175 per ton of CO2 in 2050 is needed to achieve this reduction target. Worldwide CO2 emissions in the power sector are reduced by 74% in this scenario relative to 2005, said IEA in the report.

According to the agency, the Indian economy is projected to grow at a much faster rate than those of Europe or the United States in the next four decades. A consequence of this growth will be a significant increase in energy use and associated CO2 emissions, in absolute and relative terms. Between 2007 and 2050, gross domestic product (GDP) will increase eightfold, the primary energy use will quadruple and CO2 emissions will increase almost fivefold.

India's share of total global CO2 emissions is projected to double from 5% to 11%. The power sector plays an especially important role as electricity demand is projected to rise fivefold. Maintaining the current high share of coal-fired power generation would cause drastic increases in India's CO2 emissions.

According to the IEA paper, assuming that the transmission and distribution losses can be reduced to 15% in 2050, about 3,700 TWh of electricity will be generated in 2050. At full load, 114 GW can generate 1,000 TWh per year.

In 2008, India had about 165 GW of total installed capacity, with an average load factor of 48%. According to the IEA's Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios, the total capacity in 2050 will be 3.8 and 4.5 times the installed capacity in 2008, respectively.

Efficiency improvements in new coal-fired power plants reduce the average CO2 production from electricity generation in the Baseline Scenario from 935 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2007 to 707 grams per kWh in 2050.

In the BLUE Map Scenario, the total installed capacity of the country would be about 748 gigawatts. The full potential of renewable sources such as biomass, geothermal, wind and tidal energy would be used. For hydropower, 51% of the potential is assumed to have been developed. Total coal-fired capacity would be roughly at the current level, but almost all this capacity would be equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS) measures.

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