IIR's September 29 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Trump to push new peace plan in talks with Netanyahu		US President Donald Trump will push a new peace plan to end the Israel-Gaza war during White House talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday. Trump has talked up prospects of reaching an agreement, telling journalists on Friday: "I think we have a deal". But Netanyahu said on Sunday "it's not been finalised yet", while Hamas said they had not formally been sent the proposal	BBC	U.S. Rig Count, Pemex, POET Ethanol Plant Purchase: Your Daily Energy News
'Wake up and accept reality.' Vance warns Moscow on Ukraine war		Vice President JD Vance says Russia needs to "wake up" and come to the negotiating table with Ukraine, echoing President Donald Trump's shift in tone on the full-scale war. Vance's Sept. 28 comments came after Trump claimed Ukraine "is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form," marking a step away from the Republican administration's previous assertions that Ukraine would likely lose some territory in the U.S. effort to broker an end to the more than three-year-long war.	USA Today	House Bill Reducing President's Role in Cross-Border Energy Projects Heads to Senate
Oil prices down 2% on expected global supply growth		Oil prices fell by nearly 2% on Monday as OPEC+ plans for another increase to oil output in November and the resumption of oil exports by Iraq's Kurdistan region via Turkey raised the global supply outlook. ...OPEC+, is likely to approve another increase to crude oil production at its meeting on Sunday. The group is expected to confirm an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day for November as rising oil prices encourage efforts to regain market share, said three sources. However, OPEC+ has been pumping almost 500,000 bpd less than its targets, defying market expectations of a supply glut.	Reuters	Pemex Debt Expected to Drop $18.8 Billion in Third Quarter
European Stocks Edge Higher; Lufthansa to cut 4,000 jobs Sony Financial Group shares jump 15% in trading debut as Asia markets mostly rise		Stocks listed in Europe were higher on Monday, as investors monitored the impact of a potential U.S. government shutdown later in the week. Spain's inflation rate accelerated in September to 3%, up from 2.7% in August. The EU's economic sentiment indicator will also be released Monday. Asia markets traded mostly higher as investors looked past the latest tariff developments. Japan broader markets fell, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.69% to end the trading day at 45,043.75, and the Topix declining 1.74% to 3,131.57, after hitting a record high Friday. Meanwhile, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.85% to close at 8,862.80. The Reserve Bank of Australia's two-day policy meeting was underway, where it is expected to hold its cash rate steady at 3.6%, according to a Reuters poll.	CNBC	Cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover Shuts Plants India Plans US$569 Million Green Steel Support Fund
Natural Gas News: Cash Market Weakness and High Storage Signal Bearish Outlook		U.S. natural gas futures opened the week under pressure, with no bullish catalysts emerging over the weekend. Prices are trading near a minor pivot at $3.161, and traders are watching that level closely for directional signals. Cash gas prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas fell into negative territory for the 12th time this year, driven by pipeline maintenance, infrastructure constraints, and a lack of takeaway capacity. Western Canada is dealing with a historic supply glut. At Alberta's AECO hub, prices settled between minus $0.55 and minus $0.80 per GJ last week, marking the lowest September pricing in over a decade.	FX Empire	Canada 3: US 0 in West Coast LNG Race
Soybean farmers caught in looming crisis as US trade war with China cripples sales		Today, Beijing is turning to South America, and particularly to Brazil, for soybeans amid trade negotiations with the United States. For American farmers who export their harvests directly to Asia, the evaporation of Chinese demand for soybeans -- at a time when fertilizer and other inputs have become more expensive -- could potentially be devastating, and lead to bankruptcies and foreclosures. "It's just a massive shock to our markets," Cory Walters, a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Nebraska, told ABC News.	ABC News	Fertilizer Demand Drives $3 Billion in U.S. Ag Chem Kickoffs
Standard Chartered Bucks Bearish Trend, Forecasts Oil Price Gains in 2026		Oil prices remain depressed in Q3 2025, with Brent at ~$69/bbl and WTI at ~$65/bbl, weighed down by OPEC+ supply increases, record U.S. output, and weak global demand. Wall Street forecasts a surplus and prices in the $50s next year, while Standard Chartered expects stimulus and supply cuts to support a rebound. Geopolitical risks persist as Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure boost Russian crude exports, while U.S. President Trump threatens new tariffs and sanctions on Russia	OilPrice	Trump Administration Wants More Coal
Week 09/22/25 - 09/29/25		Will Negotiators be able to work out ceasefire deals in Eastern Europe as well as the Middle East as the U.S. strives to exert more pressure on Russia and Israel? Doubts abound. Outlook remains murky. The trend for the economic and commodity markets is "slightly bearish" in the moment; but a catalyst could bring the Bulls stampeding back front and center. Like Standard Chartered, who is bucking Wall Street Bears and calling for a rebound in 2026. Therefore, almost all eyes and ears are focused on the "negotiating tables" -- and press releases -- this week; and we shall see if there will be a brokered peace in time for the holidays...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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