Industrial Info's North America Centrifugal Pump Report Forecasts Market to 2020

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Industrial Info has recently released its North America Centrifugal Pump (CP) Spending Forecast (2010-2020). Despite continued market uncertainty, the forecast highlights the North America industrial market continuing to present a sizeable demand profile of spending for the centrifugal pump market out to 2020.

The forecast covers spending demand estimates for centrifugal pumps across some 147,000 operational and planned industrial plants where Industrial Info has identified currently active and planned projects. The forecast also models spending demand estimates on centrifugal pumps within those plants where no active projects have yet been identified. Currently, Industrial Info is actively monitoring and tracking some 73,143 active capital and maintenance projects totaling some $3.89 trillion within North America across 12 industries. Based on Industrial Info's estimates, the forecast highlights a spend demand outlook for centrifugal pumps of about $16.5 billion between 2016 and 2020.

Click the icon at right for a graph showing the centrifugal pump spend forecast by industry.

Power Generation is the top industry, with projected spending on centrifugal pumps at about $3.78 billion, with $2.7 billion of this amount associated with capital projects. Capital projects will include centrifugal pump demand associated with new plant construction (grassroot/brownfield development) and other in-plant capital work, which includes process expansions, power unit additions, modifications, revamps, retrofits, conversions, automation, compliance, remediation, renovations, rebuilds, refurbishments and upgrades. Capital spending projections include costs for equipment labor and consumables. Maintenance, repair & overhaul (MRO) spending associated with centrifugal pumps within the power generation sector for the period of 2016-2020 is estimated at $391 million. MRO spending is associated with in-plant maintenance, including planned shutdowns, outages and unplanned/planned unit maintenance activity, plus any plant and unit level contract agreements, including long-term service agreements (LTSAs) for services and contract labor. The maintenance budget factored into the modeling includes minor to major maintenance outage costs as well as daily ongoing maintenance.

Pumps within the power generation sector have typically formed an essential part of the power generation fossil fuel process, with the key applications being boiler feed, condensate extraction, cooling water circulation, and in the case of nuclear, applications and safety pumps.

New-build, coal-fired generation has been dormant for several years now and Industrial Info does not expect this to change any time soon, and thus not drive demand for new centrifugal pumps. What investments Industrial Info does see moving forward will be in-plant capital projects associated with environmental compliance projects as well as efficiency and compliance upgrades and maintenance. With a huge operational base of about 400 coal-fired power plants, Industrial Info projects there will continue to be high demand for maintaining rotary equipment, including centrifugal pumps as well as new pump requirements from in-plant capital projects in the form of retrofits, modernizations and revamps.

The continued push for cleaner fuels, coupled with low fuel costs, have meant that the natural gas-fired generation market has been seeing a lot of investment activity. There are around 120 grassroot plants (105 gigawatts) under development in the U.S. and Canada for the forecast period, which would drive opportunities for the centrifugal pumps market. There is also a large population base of about 1,600 operational natural gas-fired power plants that would drive centrifugal pumps maintenance spending as well as new pump requirements from in-plant capital spending for pumps used in applications as diverse as boiler feed, condensate extraction, circulating cooling water and utility service.

Continued concerns over safety and spent fuel disposal as well as increased competition from falling prices of competing fuels such as natural gas have meant that there is only marginal grassroot development under way in the nuclear power sector. However, the current operational base of around 67 nuclear plants would continue to drive maintenance spending as well as periodic replacements for centrifugal pumps, with some new pumps requirements from in-plant refurbishment spending activity in Canada. A typical 1700-megawatt (MW) pressurized water nuclear reactor for power generation may require up to 150 pumps with a value of as much as $140 million to $150 million. Unit values can range from $12,000 for utility service pumps to $20 million for the specialist reactor coolant pumps.

The Chemical Processing sector in the U.S. continues to show historically high levels of capital investments. Spending in the petrochemicals and agricultural chemicals sectors is expected to remain robust over the next few years as waves of new ethylene, methanol and fertilizer capacity are developed to support the increasing demand for chemicals from an improvement in domestic markets as well as exports. The ongoing supply of shale gas continues to provide a very favorable cost-advantage for U.S. chemicals producers, making the U.S. one of the lowest cost producers. This supply of cheap gas and ethane is both feeding into the downstream domestic plastics & rubbers sectors as well as exportability of U.S. chemicals to the rest of the world.

Low natural gas prices, coupled with strong international demand growth, has meant that there are several grassroot fertilizer facilities being planned, which would drive demand for centrifugal pumps. These mega-projects are driven by the cost advantage the segment has, which it is capitalizing off to capture export market growth. The need to develop more robust strategies around food security and higher production yields are leading to continued global demand growth for fertilizers and pesticides. There are a number of very large grassroot projects currently under development, which are either producing fertilizers or are adding new ammonia capacity to feed into the downstream agrichemicals markets. There are also nearly 300 operational fertilizer plants in the U.S. and Canada, which would drive maintenance spending for centrifugal pumps as well as demand for new centrifugal pumps from in-plant capital projects.

The petrochemicals sector continues to drive the bulk of the chemicals sector's spending momentum. U.S. producers continue to benefit from the lowest cost curves in the world after the Middle East. Ethylene, ammonia and methanol, typically highly pump intensive sectors, continue to be the big beneficiary segments, which would drive demand for centrifugal pumps. There are nearly 40 new plants currently under development in the organic chemicals segment, of which several are multi-billion dollar ethylene and methanol projects, making up most of the capital spending opportunities for the centrifugal pumps capital spending market. Furthermore, there are about 400 operational organic chemicals plants, which would drive the maintenance for centrifugal pumps. There are several expansions, modernization, revamps, and unit additions projects being tracked at these operational plants, which would also drive opportunities for new centrifugal pumps.

While the forecast does not break down spending by individual chemicals segments, the overall forecasted spending demand on centrifugal pumps between 2016 and 2020 is just over $3.57 billion, with capital projects accounting for $2.55 billion of that. Of that, 2017 is expected to show a peak in spending of almost $827 million. Spending in Texas and Louisiana account for 45% of the forecast period, which reflects the substantial new ethylene capacity build-out being seen in the Gulf Coast.

Chemical Processing 2016 - 2020 Centrifugal Pump Spending
Capex & MRO for Top 3 States and Others

Projects	Aggregate Forecast
Texas	$954 million
Louisiana	$649 million
Ontario	$236 million
Others	$1,731 million

Oil & Gas spending demand for centrifugal pumps collectively totals $2.66 billion across the Production, Pipelines and Storage /Terminals segments that make up the supply chain. Pump demand within the oil and gas production segment is expected to peak to $236 million in 2018 and then tail away over the following years. This reflects some of the ongoing pull back Industrial Info is seeing in project activity across much of the upstream markets, but there is still strong demand from the wave of new LNG capacity being developed. Maintenance spending is expected to remain firm and peak to around $14.6 million in 2019. Centrifugal pump demand within the pipelines market will top almost $1.33 billion over the 2016-2020 forecast period with a peak year being seen in 2017.

Petroleum Refining is the third biggest driver of the projected spending on centrifugal pumps, where opportunity is centered on maintenance/replacement of existing pumps in the more than 300 currently operational refineries in U.S. and Canada. There is also significant capital spending activity at operational plants in the way of expansions, debottlenecks, revamps and modernizations, which are driving the requirements for new centrifugal pumps. Refineries are typically highly pump intensive facilities, with a typical 300,000 barrel-per-day refinery accounting for around 400 to 600 centrifugal pumps, and annual per pump maintenance averaging around $700 to $1,000.

The petroleum refining market is forecasted to present a total opportunity of over $1.71 billion in centrifugal pump demand. Texas and Louisiana will account for 32% of this, with a further $366 million in Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. At $852 million, maintenance-related spending is expected to exceed the $700 million in capital related pump activity from 2016-2020.

To learn more about this or other equipment forecasts, contact customer service by phone at (800) 762-3361.

Scope Summary:

• 4-year Historical and 4-year Forecasted spending split by Capital & Maintenance (2010-2020)
• Spending is segmented across 12 industries
• Spending is further segmented by Country /State /Province and Market Region for North America
• Available as an online interactive analyzer tool, or as datasheets completed with pivot tables


Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, five offices in North America and 10 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com/.