Philippines Energy Levels Under Critical Pressure as Low Water Levels Hinder Hydropower in Mindanao Lakes

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The Philippines' power supply is reported to be under critical pressure as power reserves continue to decline. Low water levels in Lake Lanao, which is on the country's second-largest island of Mindanao, have reduced power generation from hydroelectric power plants. The problems have been exacerbated by maintenance operations and generator shutdowns.

Reduced generating capacity also has resulted from low fuel supplies for the country's thermal coal- and oil-fed power plants. The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) has introduced load curtailments to prevent damage to the power facilities, causing brownouts and rolling blackouts in many areas.

The Philippines government is reportedly considering a proposal made by the opposition party to grant emergency powers to Philippines President Arroyo. With a national election scheduled for May 10 this year, concerns have been raised over the possibilities of blackouts and power shortages causing problems with the election infrastructure.

Forecasts for May indicate an overall power shortfall of 440 MW for the month, with the NGCP forecasting a shortfall of 4 MW in Mindanao alone on the day of the elections. The other main islands of Luzon and Visayas at this stage are not expecting power shortages on Election Day, but the situation is still volatile.

In Luzon, which has 7,247 MW of generating capacity, the peak demand has reached 6,551 MW, leaving some 696 MW as power reserves. However, seven power plants--Binga 1, Bacman 4,Ilijan A1 and A2, Sta Rita 1 and 3, and Makban 7--are undergoing maintenance shutdowns and this, together with low fuel levels at the 600-MW Malaya power plant, caused the NGCP to issue warnings of one-hour rolling blackouts in metropolitan Manila last week.

The situation in Luzon was eased last week when the 540-MW Limay combined-cycle power plant began producing power. Although power production was initially a low 240 MW, this grew to 360 MW by the end of the first day, and the plant is expected to reach its planned capacity within a week.

In Visayas, which has a generating capacity of 1,061 MW, peak demand has reached 1,176 MW, resulting in a 115-MW shortfall. Three power plants are currently out of operation in the region.

The Mindanao region is possibly the most critical region due to its reliance on hydro-electricity. It has a generating capacity of 1,094 MW and reported a shortfall of 116 MW, following a peak demand of 1,210 MW. In addition to the problems caused by low water levels, two diesel-driven power plants-- the 55-MW Agus 5 and the 100-MW PB 118 Unit 2 plants--were running at 44 MW and 96 MW, respectively.

Criticism has been aimed at the Energy Secretary at the timing of the maintenance shutdowns, with claims that the shutdowns should have been scheduled for the rainy season. However, others have claimed that the maintenance shutdowns are taking place in an attempt to avoid supply problems over the election period.

Among the measures under consideration is the possibility of increasing rainfall by cloud seeding. The measure has been proposed by the Department of Agriculture to counter the prolonged dry spell that has not only significantly lowered water levels but has badly affected some 32,320 hectares of rice-producing land in Western Visayas.

However, there is some opposition to the cloud-seeding idea from producers of other crops, such as watermelons and mangoes, which may be adversely affected by rain at a critical growing phase.

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