Reports related to this article:
Project(s): View 6 related projects in PECWeb
Plant(s): View 6 related plants in PECWeb
Released March 11, 2024 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The U.S. solar market surged in 2023, with record installations totaling about 32.4 gigawatts (GW), a 51% jump over 2022, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie (Edinburgh, Scotland) and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) (Washington, D.C.). Their report, "U.S. Solar Market: 2023 Year in Review," was released March 7. It said solar accounted for approximately 53% of all new electric generating capacity added to the U.S. grid in 2023, the first time solar garnered more than 50% of all new generating capacity.
Continuing a historical pattern, utility-scale deployments accounted for most U.S. solar deployments last year on a gigawatts of installed capacity basis. Utility-scale deployments totaled about 22.5 GW last year, a new record that was nearly 10 GW more than year-earlier deployments. The report said this sharp rate of growth is partly due to the easing of supply-chain kinks. Many of the projects completed in 2023 were delayed from 2022.
The residential segment set another annual record with approximately 6.8 GW of generating capacity installed in 2023, a 13% gain over 2022 deployments. However, the solar report said that the large pipeline of California projects sold under more beneficial net metering rules from earlier in 2023 was largely built out, suggesting a slowdown may be ahead in the Golden State.
Commercial-scale and community solar projects added about 1.9 GW and 1.1 GW, respectively, of new generating capacity last year, the report added. Both were new records. On a GW basis, commercial-scale deployments rose 19% over 2022 levels while community solar deployments last year grew about 3% on a year-over-year basis.
The report, issued quarterly, looks forward a decade and sees a bright future for solar generation in the U.S. solar power plant deployments are forecast to peak at about 50 GW per year in the early 2030s.
The utility-scale segment of the solar market is expected to continue growing, with annual additions exceeding 30 GW in the early years of the next decade.
The report included an extended 10-year outlook for every segment of the solar market. Over the next decade, the installed capacity of the total U.S. solar market is expected to nearly triple, to about 673 GW of overall installed capacity in 2034 up from 177 GW at year-end 2023. By 2040, the report projected, solar is expected to make up the largest share of electric generating capacity in the U.S.
"U.S. Solar Market: 2023 Year in Review" noted that for the second time in three years, Texas installed more solar generation in 2023 than longtime solar king California. The surge came from utility-scale projects in the Lone Star State.
Recognizing that the U.S. solar industry is expected to experience headwinds as well as tailwinds over the next few years, the WoodMac/SEIA report projected three growth trajectories: bullish, baseline and bearish. The bullish case projected a 17% net gain over the baseline case by 2034. By contrast, a bearish case could result in 24% less deployments than the baseline by that year.
Industrial Info is tracking about 324 medium- and high-probability utility-scale solar capital projects that are scheduled to begin construction in the U.S. in the five-year period of 2024-2029. The total investment value (TIV) of those projects is about $77.8 billion. Projects with a medium probability have a 70% to 80% likelihood of moving forward according to their current schedule. High-probability projects have an 81% to 99% probability of moving forward according to their current plans.
Industrial Info does not necessarily expect all of these planned utility-scale solar projects will progress according to their respective schedules. New projects are added on a near-daily basis, and others are delayed or cancelled for various reasons. Solar remains a dynamic market.
Texas, California and Indiana are the three states with the greatest dollar-value of medium- and high-probability of utility-scale solar projects that are scheduled to begin construction by yearend 2029, according to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence platform. Arizona, Nevada and Virginia are other states with a high dollar value of utility-scale solar projects that are deemed to have a medium- or high-probability of moving forward according to their current schedules. Many of these projects have a battery energy storage system (BESS) component so clean electricity can be stored for later use.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
Continuing a historical pattern, utility-scale deployments accounted for most U.S. solar deployments last year on a gigawatts of installed capacity basis. Utility-scale deployments totaled about 22.5 GW last year, a new record that was nearly 10 GW more than year-earlier deployments. The report said this sharp rate of growth is partly due to the easing of supply-chain kinks. Many of the projects completed in 2023 were delayed from 2022.
The residential segment set another annual record with approximately 6.8 GW of generating capacity installed in 2023, a 13% gain over 2022 deployments. However, the solar report said that the large pipeline of California projects sold under more beneficial net metering rules from earlier in 2023 was largely built out, suggesting a slowdown may be ahead in the Golden State.
Commercial-scale and community solar projects added about 1.9 GW and 1.1 GW, respectively, of new generating capacity last year, the report added. Both were new records. On a GW basis, commercial-scale deployments rose 19% over 2022 levels while community solar deployments last year grew about 3% on a year-over-year basis.
The report, issued quarterly, looks forward a decade and sees a bright future for solar generation in the U.S. solar power plant deployments are forecast to peak at about 50 GW per year in the early 2030s.
The utility-scale segment of the solar market is expected to continue growing, with annual additions exceeding 30 GW in the early years of the next decade.
The report included an extended 10-year outlook for every segment of the solar market. Over the next decade, the installed capacity of the total U.S. solar market is expected to nearly triple, to about 673 GW of overall installed capacity in 2034 up from 177 GW at year-end 2023. By 2040, the report projected, solar is expected to make up the largest share of electric generating capacity in the U.S.
"U.S. Solar Market: 2023 Year in Review" noted that for the second time in three years, Texas installed more solar generation in 2023 than longtime solar king California. The surge came from utility-scale projects in the Lone Star State.
Recognizing that the U.S. solar industry is expected to experience headwinds as well as tailwinds over the next few years, the WoodMac/SEIA report projected three growth trajectories: bullish, baseline and bearish. The bullish case projected a 17% net gain over the baseline case by 2034. By contrast, a bearish case could result in 24% less deployments than the baseline by that year.
Industrial Info is tracking about 324 medium- and high-probability utility-scale solar capital projects that are scheduled to begin construction in the U.S. in the five-year period of 2024-2029. The total investment value (TIV) of those projects is about $77.8 billion. Projects with a medium probability have a 70% to 80% likelihood of moving forward according to their current schedule. High-probability projects have an 81% to 99% probability of moving forward according to their current plans.
Industrial Info does not necessarily expect all of these planned utility-scale solar projects will progress according to their respective schedules. New projects are added on a near-daily basis, and others are delayed or cancelled for various reasons. Solar remains a dynamic market.
Texas, California and Indiana are the three states with the greatest dollar-value of medium- and high-probability of utility-scale solar projects that are scheduled to begin construction by yearend 2029, according to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence platform. Arizona, Nevada and Virginia are other states with a high dollar value of utility-scale solar projects that are deemed to have a medium- or high-probability of moving forward according to their current schedules. Many of these projects have a battery energy storage system (BESS) component so clean electricity can be stored for later use.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
