With 746 Gigawatts of Nuclear Power Possible through 2035, Production Investment Needed

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Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--At the end of 2010, there were 440 commercial nuclear power reactors in operation globally, representing 375 gigawatts (GW) and cumulatively requiring a uranium feed of 63,875 tons of uranium annually, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's Nuclear Energy Agency and International Atomic Agency report, "Uranium 2011: Resources, Production and Demand."

The 24th edition of the "Red Book" found that by 2035, nuclear power capacity can be expected to grow to between 540 GW, which would require 97,645 tons of uranium annually, and 746 GW, which would require 136,385 tons of uranium annually. These scenarios take into account the effects of policies introduced by some countries following Japan's Fukushima disaster in March 2011.

The report says that defined uranium resources are more than adequate to currently meet the high case demand through 2035, but not without timely investments in uranium production facilities.

"Significant investment and technical expertise will be required to bring these resources to the market and to identify additional resources," the Red Book reports. "Sufficiently high uranium market prices will be needed to fund these activities, especially in light of the rising costs of production."

Total identified uranium resources have increased by more than 12% since the last report, which covered data up to 2009, although lower-cost resources have decreased significantly because of increased mining costs.

"Undiscovered resources" (i.e. resources expected to exist based on existing geological knowledge but requiring significant exploration to conform and define) currently stand at 10,400,500 tons of uranium annually.

The increase in the resource base is the result of concerted exploration and development efforts. About $2 billion was spent on uranium exploration and mine development in 2010, a 22% increase on 2008 figures, with a focus on areas with the potential for hosting in-situ leach (ISL) recovery operations.

ISL accounted for 39% of 2010 production, supported by ISL production increases in Kazakhstan. Underground mining took 32%, and open pit mining 23%. Co-product and by-product recovery from gold and copper mining operations accounted for 6%.

Two countries have joined those reporting production figures since publication of the last Red Book. They are Malawi, which started uranium production in 2009, and Germany, where production resumed through uranium recovery from mine remediation work.

Secondary sources of uranium, such as stockpiles of natural and enriched uranium, reprocessed used fuel and the re-enrichment of depleted uranium tails, will still continue to be required, although their role is expected to decline post-2013, when agreements between Russia and the U.S. to downblend ex-military, highly enriched uranium for use in nuclear fuel expire.

The report concludes that, regardless of the role nuclear energy ultimately plays in meeting future electricity demand, the uranium resource base is more than adequate to meet projected requirements for the foreseeable future. It says the challenge is to continue developing environmentally sustainable mining operations to bring increasing quantities of uranium to the market in a timely fashion.

For related information, see February 10, 2011, article - Kazakhstan Reaches Record Uranium Production, Pushes Diversification Strategy.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, and eight offices outside of North America, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities.