White House "Operation Warp Speed": Race is On for a COVID-19 Vaccine by End of 2020, an Industrial Info Market Brief

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The Trump administration has announced a new program to develop and distribute an effective COVID-19 vaccine for 300 million U.S. citizens by January 2021. A consortium of private pharmaceutical companies, government agencies and the military are charged with this seemingly impossible task.

Numerous challenges remain, the foremost being the lack of understanding of COVID-19, as well as no clear way to choose controls for effective clinical trials. To show that a vaccine works, it must be demonstrated and proven that a large majority of people taking the vaccine would not become infected with SARS CoV-2, compared to controls. Unknowns about the seasonality of the virus are a problem in understanding the number of potential infected people.

Under the agreement, the majority of any financial risk resulting from the effort will be shouldered by the federal government.