U.S. Gasoline Prices Spike as Trump Tries to Calm Markets

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

U.S. retail gasoline prices are moving closer to $4 per gallon, with Midwest markets closer to $5 on refinery woes. Trump is hoping to encourage more drilling.

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30-Cent Weekly Jump at the Pump

While U.S. President Donald Trump works to shore up supplies at home, data show the national average retail price of gasoline is up nearly 30 cents per gallon from week-ago levels because of refinery issues and the war in the Middle East.

Industrial Info Resources is tracking activity at more than 130 operational refineries nationwide. During the weekend, the Whiting Refinery in Indiana, controlled by BP plc, suffered a brief power outage that disrupted operations. The facility can process 430,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, and onsite engineers and plant management have been operating the plant since a union lockout began February 1.

According to Industrial Info Resources data, earlier this week Exxon Mobil Corporation closed the fluid catalytic cracker at its 250,000-bpd refinery in Joliet, Illinois, starving the region of high-octane gasoline. That unit could be down until May 8.

Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the wholesale price for a gallon of gasoline, is up nearly 90% over the last three months, reflecting the geopolitical risk premium supporting commodity prices since war in the Middle East began in late February.

On Friday, travel club AAA put the average retail price at $4.39 for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, up 2% from the prior day and 8.4% higher than week-ago levels. It was in mid-2022, when global commodity markets were upended by sanctions that sidelined Russian supplies because of the invasion of Ukraine, that gasoline prices were last this high.

AAA attributed the rise to the risk premium supporting crude oil prices, which account for the bulk of what consumers see at the pump. On Friday, West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, was trading near $103 per barrel, up some 9% on the week.

Industrial Info Resources continues to keep track of developments driving up the price of crude oil. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) said recently that 12.1 million bpd of crude oil was shut in because of the conflict, and that level could peak at around 13.7 million bpd.

In California, retail gasoline prices recently topped $6 per gallon. No state has ever before passed $6 per gallon, discounting inflation. Refinery closures, higher taxes and the war premium are supporting prices there. For more on that, see April 21, 2026, article - .

By the Numbers

• $6 per gallon is a record setter
• 12.1 million bpd shut-in by war

Pain Spreads Beyond the Pump

The risk from runaway commodity prices is causing pain for the global economy. Indermit Gill, the chief economist for the World Bank, said early this week that many economies already were struggling before conflict began.

"The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive," he said.

On Thursday, White House economic adviser Kevin Hasset said the administration is looking at deregulation, among other things, to incentivize crude oil production at home.

"We've been in constant communication with the oil companies and have been considering measures that we could take here in the U.S. to increase U.S. production really soon," Hasset told Reuters.

Domestic firms, however, are cautious about responding to the war premium. A survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that caution was the prevailing sentiment.

"Even after nearly a month of oil above $90 per barrel, rig counts declined, signaling little confidence that prices will hold," one survey respondent said.

Key Takeaways

• Outages at Whiting, Joliet add insult to injury
• Cumulative waves crashing on global economy, World Bank says

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news, and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing, and energy-related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified, and verified plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).