World Bank Sounds Alarm Bells Over U.S./Israel War With Iran Amid Refinery Outages

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

"Get smart," U.S. President Donald Trump told Iran in an early-morning message on Wednesday. Crude oil prices rallied on the news, with the World Bank warning of the consequences.

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Trump Sends Warning

A warning to Iran from U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday sent crude oil prices higher amid warnings of the economic impact from the World Bank.

Alongside an AI-generated image of the president with a gun, Trump took to social media to say that Iran "better get smart soon." Both sides continue with blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, creating major supply-side challenges for both oil and liquefied natural gas. According to Industrial Info Resources data, dozens of facilities have experienced unplanned outages due to fighting that began with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February.

The 130,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Ruwais Refinery 1 (East), operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), has been offline for 56 days and counting. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Petroleum Refining Offline Event Database can view the offline report.

A few hours after Trump's early-morning message was posted on the Truth Social platform, the price of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, was up around 3.6% to trade near $108 per barrel. The price is up nearly 9% so far this week.

Both sides remain far apart on a peace deal despite several attempts at negotiations, adding volatility to a conflict that's created major economic headwinds. Further compounding the uncertainty is a decision by the United Arab Emirates to pursue market share by leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by Friday. For more on that, see April 28, 2026, article - Goodbye OPEC, UAE Says Amid Energy Crisis.

War Causing Cumulative Pain

According to the World Bank, the world is out around 10 million barrels of oil per day because of the conflict. Economists there expect overall commodity prices to jump 16% this year, as the war impacts everything from metals to fertilizers.

"The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive," said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group's chief economist.

For fertilizers, which are derived from natural gas, prices are expected to jump by 31% this year, which the World Bank said could lead to an affordability crisis that would starve farmers of income and supplies. That, in turn, could push more than 45 million people into food insecurity.

IIR News Intelligence reported Wednesday that roughly 30% of the global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, causing sharp price increases for nitrogen, urea, ammonia and other fertilizer components. For more on that, see April 29, 2026, article - U.S. Chemical Investments Shift Amid Fertilizer Crisis.

By the Numbers

• 6%: The spike in inflation possible, the World Bank warns
• 45 million: The number of people could face food security issues

In general, the World Bank estimates that inflation from the developing economies could be close to 6% annually should Brent remain close to $110 per barrel. If the forecast is accurate, that would be rivaled only by the 2022 energy crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"The poorest people, who spend the highest share of their income on food and fuels, will be hit the hardest, as will developing economies already struggling under heavy debt burdens," the bank's chief economist said. "All of this is a reminder of a stark truth: war is development in reverse."

Key Takeaways

• Trump warns Iran with gun-laden image.
• The war is damaging the economy in ways not seen since the start of the war in Ukraine.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).