U.S. to Hold Global No. 1 Economic Spot until China Takes Over in 2028, Says CEBR Report

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Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--A study by an independent U.K.-based economic think tank forecasts that Britain could overtake Germany to become Europe's largest economy by 2030, although Britain would still fall behind India and Brazil in a global ranking.

The study by the Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) (London) shows India overtaking Japan by 2028 to become the world's third-largest economy. The study also shows that it will become the largest in the British Commonwealth of 53 countries.

China's progress toward being the world's largest economy continues, with the CEBR research forecasting that it will overtake the U.S. to take the top spot in 2028. This is later than some analysts have suggested and reflects the continuing performance of the U.S. as the West's strongest economy as well as the slowing down of the Chinese economy.

The U.K. gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed that of France by 2018 and past Germany by 2030. Brazil will overtake Britain in 2023 and become the world's fifth-largest economy.

Britain's performance is seen to be the second-best of all advanced economies behind the U.S. It is the only major western country to move up the global league table, but it is forecast to slip back to seventh place in 2023 as India and Brazil overtake it.

The annual CBER report gives a year-end forecast for the 30 largest countries during the next five, 10 and 15 years.

The current report says that slow growth, a weakening European Union and growth in the elderly segment of the population in some countries will hit many European economies. The forecast assumesthat the European Union will hold together. It says that if the European Union broke up, the outlook for the German GDP would be much better and the outlook for the other European countries correspondingly worse. On the assumption that the European Union holds, Germany drops from the fourth-largest economy in 2013 to the sixth-largest in 2023 and 2028.

France will experience a sharper drop from fifth in 2013 to eighth in 2018, to 10th in 2023 and 13th in 2028. Italy drops from eighth to 15th in 2028, and Spain drops from 13th in 2013 to 18th in 2028. A sign of the fast-changing global economic scenario is that Nigeria, Egypt, Iraq and the Philippines are forecast to break into the top 30 league by 2028.

In 2013, there are only two changes in the top 20 economies. Russia overtakes Italy (suffering from recession) to gain eighth place and Canada overtakes India as a result of the collapse of the rupee to retake its position as the second-largest economy in the Commonwealth and the 10th largest in the world. Below the top 20, there are some dramatic changes. Iran drops from 21st to 30th as sanctions bite. South Africa drops from 28th in the top 30 to 33rd as strikes, slow growth and a weakening currency affect its position.

By 2018, emerging economies will be on the move. Russia is up to sixth; India ninth, Mexico 12th; South Korea 13th and Turkey 17th. By 2023, Taiwan breaks into the top 20 at 19th.

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