Do Germany's Elections Foreshadow Immigration, Energy Shifts?

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Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Sunday's voting in the German states of Saxony and Thüringia showed, as predicted, a hard right turn on the part of voters frustrated with what they perceive as lax immigration policies and other issues. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD, German: Alternative für Deutschland) also is strongly opposed to many of the current government's energy policies, including expanding wind energy and abandoning nuclear.

In Thüringia, AfD finished on top, garnering about one third of the vote--nine points higher than the conservative Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) party and significantly ahead of the three parties in the current ruling coalition. In Saxony, it finished second by a hair, with CDU collecting 31.9% and AfD right behind--and again ahead of the ruling coalition parties.

Strong showings in these state parliament elections will not engender immediate changes in any policies, as they only encompass those two states, and in neither case does AfD have a majority. But the results may signal a more widespread shift as the nation looks to national elections in 2025, results that could have a much larger impact if these trends spread.

The biggest challenge for AfD is that its 33% vote share means it could only lead by creating a coalition--something no other parties are interested in doing. The centrist, left, and green parties are strongly opposed to almost all AfD policies, and while the conservative CDU is nearer to it politically than the others--and also saw gains--it so far has announced no intention of joining AfD in governing.

Losses by the current ruling parties will make it harder for them to form coalitions as well, possibly forcing them to join with the far-left Reason and Justice Party (BSW: German Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht), which could create new challenges in governing.

AfD's Energy Policies
The basis of the party's platform is that climate change has been a constant of earth's geologic history, not human-caused, and therefore, "The planned compulsory reduction of CO2 emissions by more than 85% would impact industrial locations and imply a reduced standard of living." They also want to "end the perception of CO2 as an exclusively harmful substance."

The party contends that, even with vast growth in wind and solar generation, the nation's CO2 emissions have remained constant since 2000, "largely due to the abrupt abandoning of the nuclear energy supply."

Echoing U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump's statement that wind turbines kill birds, the AfD's policy document continues by pointing out the intermittency of wind and solar, which can create supply/demand problems for the grid. While some of those could be solved by storage, AfD's statement points out that this would be tremendously expensive.

Fracking Policies
Saying that fracking "involves risks," the group advocates "exploring this technology and the benefits and risks of fracking under the existing strict German environmental and mining laws." If that research shows risks to be manageable, they recommend expanding its use and exploring possible locations.

Current Hydrocarbon Industry
Germany's hydrocarbon production is miniscule, accounting for 117,932 barrels--only 3.1% of its oil supply--in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). It has been on a downward spiral since 2000.

For natural gas, the nation produced about 3.8 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2023, according to Statista figures, compared to 18.5 Bcm in 2004. IEA's 2021 figures show Germany as the top European gas producer, ahead of the United Kingdom and Italy. Most fields are in the North German Basin, primarily in Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony.

Were the AfD to obtain enough power to enact its policies on fracking, it would face resurrecting an industry that has been in decline since 1968. Although immigration is listed as a major issue for voters in recent elections, it may not be an accident that the party's greatest victory was in an oil-producing region.

Imports and Usage
While imports account for 96.1% of all crude used, it was only 38% of total energy imports in 2022. Crude imports that year were down by 15% since 2000.

Regarding natural gas imports, Germany received approximately 93.5214 Bcm of natural gas in 2023, mostly from Norway. It has taken no natural gas from Russia since 2022.

German federal elections are more than a year away, scheduled for September 28, 2025. Much can happen in that time frame, both on the world stage and in Germany. But all phases of the energy industry, green and fossil, will be watching this closely.

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