Spring 2026: Fading La Niña, Western Drought Risk, Eye on Hurricane Season

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Spring 2026 will feature a transition, supporting warm conditions along the West Coast and southern U.S. A cooler outlook is forecast for the Great Lakes & Northeast regions. Western and ERCOT drought concerns persist. A near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is expected. Warm waters and an evolving El Niño will be offsetting tropical influences.

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Overview

The Spring 2026 outlook for North America is looking like a "transition season" in more than the traditional sense. Examining the climate trends, analysis shows a fading La Niña in the tropical Pacific.

The recent Climate Prediction Center's update maintains a La Niña Advisory. However, it also highlights almost a 90% likelihood for an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral state over the March-May 2026 timeframe. This neutral phase is forecast to persist into the early summer. This transition will allow for a background pattern that could allow for cold air outbreaks, particularly during March.

The shift is relevant because it helps explain why the seasonal U.S. outlooks lean toward a familiar spring contrast. Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across much of the southern tier and interior West. Below-normal temperatures are forecast across the upper Midwest, along with the Great Lakes, New York and New England.

Across the East, above-normal rainfall is forecast for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Below-normal rainfall will compound the ongoing drought across a large portion of the West, along with High Plains and most of Texas.

For Canada, the spring outlook is for below-normal temperature across the Canadian prairies. Additionally, cooler than normal temps are expected for the region from central Ontario to southern Quebec. Atlantic Canada will also face cooler marine influences.

Early guidance for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season points to a near-normal year. However, predictability remains limited at this time. While a developing El Niño would likely increase wind shear later in the season, persistently warm Atlantic waters may support early activity.

Spring Season Analysis

Temperature Outlook
IIR News Intelligence's temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures along the West Coast, extending east from the Four Corners to the western Gulf coast. The highest likelihood for above-normal temperatures is over parts of the Desert Southwest.

By contrast, below-normal temperatures are favored across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Colder temperatures are also forecast across the eastern Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Valley, extending south across most of New England.

There will be an enhanced risk for cold temperatures through March for the Great Lakes-to-New England region. Recent analysis shows a weakening (or potentially reversing) polar vortex and an increased risk of Canadian air surges next month.

This is not a promise (or threat) of a continuously cold spring across portions of the East. Spring never behaves that cleanly. However, it does raise the odds of strong backdoor cold fronts and larger temperature swings across the Northeast and Upper Midwest. These cold air outbreaks will also likely reach the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic. However, warm Gulf air flowing north ahead of the cold fronts will help offset the colder temperatures, keeping the seasonal average near normal.

IIR News Intelligence March-April-May (MAM) 2026 Temperature Outlook
Precipitation Outlook
The spring precipitation outlook shows an increased risk of below-normal precipitation across the Four Corners region and across portions of Texas. Western sections of the central and southern Plains will also be at risk.

If this signal is verified across the interior Southwest and Four Corners region, dry fuels can develop quickly. This change would enhance fire-weather risk. These precipitation deficits, coupled with moderate-to-extreme drought across the area, will continue to impact the Colorado River Basin.

Overlapping the below-normal temperatures, above-normal precipitation is favored from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and adjacent Mississippi Valley regions. This results from the lingering La Niña along with the potential positive Pacific North American phase yielding a more active storm track.

Above-normal precipitation is also forecast for the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia. This is forecast to result from increased atmospheric river activity into the region.

Meanwhile, the national precipitation outlook indicates near-normal totals across most of Canada apart from southern British Columbia.

IIR News Intelligence March-April-May (MAM) Precipitation Outlook

Hurricane Season Analysis

For the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season, the early outlook should be framed as guidance versus a deterministic call. There are predictability limitations in the 4 to 8-month outlook.

The biggest factor for tropical Atlantic activity is often during August through October. The long-lead outlook is for an increasing probability for a positive El Niño phase through the upcoming summer. Specifically, the current forecast shows an almost 50% risk for the July through September window.

Currently, the outlook is for a near-normal Atlantic season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) defines a "near-normal" Atlantic hurricane season using the 1991--2020 climatological baseline.

• Named storms: 12--17
• Hurricanes: 5--8
• Major hurricanes (Category 3+): 2--4

Regardless of what "near-normal" yields for seasonal totals, decision-makers across the tropical Atlantic Basin should remember "it only takes one." A single hurricane in a major industrial corridor or a slow-moving tropical system with extreme rainfall can define how the 2026 season is remembered.

Key Takeaways

• Increasing variability and late-season cold risk is possible in the eastern U.S.
• Warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored across the southern tier, Southwest, and interior West.
• Cooler episodes are likely from the Great Lakes into New England due to blocking and polar vortex disruption.
• Below-normal precipitation across the West and Texas will heighten drought and early fire-weather concerns.
• The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is projected near to be normal.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).