Ag State Reps Introduce Bill to Require EIA to Track Sustainable Aviation Fuel

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Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Noting that his home state of Nebraska is "the second largest producer of biofuels in the nation and we're constantly working to grow our bioeconomy," Representative Mike Flood (R-Neb), along with Troy A Carter, Sr. (D-La), on August 9 introduced the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Information Act. If passed into law, the act would require the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to include SAF in its weekly reports.

EIA data affected includes its Petroleum Supply Monthly report and its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The agency would be required to include data on the type, origin, and volume of feedstock used in SAF production, along with totals on SAF domestic production as well as imports.

Rep. Flood explains that this information will allow "stakeholders and industry to better understand how production is developing." Carter added, "Aviation currently represents approximately 10 percent of our nation's transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions," and that tracking SAF production would boost efforts to decarbonize the aviation sector.

IIR Tracks SAF Projects
As yet, SAF is a small part of the aviation fuel mix, accounting for just 15.8 million gallons or 0.1% of the total used by U.S. airlines in 2022, according to a Government Accounting Office (GAO) estimate. European aerospace builder Airbus estimates that worldwide numbers doubled in 2023, from 300 million liters in 2022 to 600 million liters in 2023, amounting to 0.2% of worldwide use. Many U.S. airlines have announced goals of using 10% SAF by 2030. In order to achieve that goal, construction of plants and infrastructure will need to ramp up quickly.

In that category, IIR's Senior Director, Energy Market Intelligence Hillary Stevenson says the company is tracking $41 billion in active SAF development in the U.S., with $1 billion in projects already completed. Of the $41 billion, $2.1 billion worth of projects are considered as having a high probability of completion, $8.9 billion are medium probability, and $30.1 billion are low probability.

That $41 billion is spread across 45 SAF-producing units IIR is tracking. Four are now operational, five are engineered or under construction, and 36 are in the planning stages. If all are completed, they would account for more than 3 billion gallons per year in SAF capacity. (Data Source: https://iir.link/fly1tk)

Sorting these projects by start dates, no high-probability units are yet scheduled to kick off after 2024. And there are almost no SAF plants of any probability with expected construction starts after 2028.

IIR knows of at least three additional units in the U.S., or 216 million gallons per year of SAF capacity, that have been cancelled or put on hold. (Data Source: https://iir.link/kfcsx6)

Election Year Blues for Green Planning
Three billion gallons per year of SAF by 2030--that was the Biden White House's announced goal in its SAF Grand Challenge, part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. The Challenge also set a goal of SAF supplying 100% of expected domestic commercial jet fuel by 2050.

The good news is that if all projects IIR is currently tracking were to be completed by 2030, that goal could be met. But almost three-fourths (73.4%) of tracked projects ($30.1 billion of $41 billion) are considered highly unlikely to be built.

Some of that uncertainty likely revolves around 2024 being an election year, with a tight race between two candidates presenting diametrically opposed energy policies. And while Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris has notably backed down from some of her pre-2020 promises to ban fracking, she would fully support, and likely expand, any energy transition funding.

But planners and investors in any energy transition-related projects that are depending on government money understand that a Trump election would see the revoking of much green funding within hours of the swearing in, causing them to hold off on final investment decisions (FID) until after November.

For example, the Grand Challenge's promise of up to $50 million in individual SAF grants funneled through the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) could be an early Trump target. Just last Friday the FAA announced it had allocated the full program allotment of $291 million across 36 projects. Losing those millions after a project was started could be devastating to other investors.

Hopefully there will be more clarity on SAF projects in 2025.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).