Dryad Global: Iran Expected to Display Military Force Within 48 Hours

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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Iran is expected to respond to the Israeli assassination of the political leader of Hamas within 48 hours, exposing risk to oil and gas transportation routes, maritime risk consultant Dryad Global said.

London-based Dryad said an attack is imminent as the broader Middle East inches closer to a full-blown, regional conflict.

"A potential war between Iran and Israel could disrupt maritime shipping, increasing costs and delays, particularly on key oil and gas transportation routes," Dryad's risk advisory from Monday read.

Israel seemingly infiltrated a tight security circle that surrounded Ismael Haniya, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran. He was assassinated last week.

A report from The Wall Street Journal suggests the Israeli spy agency Mossad planted a bomb inside Haniya's guesthouse. Iran has since vowed revenge for an attack that occurred on the same day as the inauguration of Iran's new president, former heart surgeon and reformist politician Masoud Pezeshkian.

War between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas, which is backed by Iran, erupted in October when militants stormed the border from the Gaza Strip, leaving hundreds of people dead. Israel's response has brought ruin to the tiny Hamas-controlled enclave on the Mediterranean Sea.

Iran in April fired hundreds of missiles on Israel in response to an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate office in Syria. Iran had broadcast the attack in advance and the Iron Dome missile defense system in Israel intercepted nearly all of the incoming fire.

The conflict has proven to be a powder keg of sorts, with the Lebanese group Hezbollah, which fought a bruising war with Israel in 2006, threatening a response to recent Israeli attacks on its leaders.

Off the coast of Yemen, meanwhile, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebel group continues to target shippers moving through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. On Monday, the U.S. military said its forces took down three drones fired from Yemeni territory.

"These weapons presented a clear and imminent threat to U.S. and coalition forces, and merchant vessels in the region," the military said. "This reckless and dangerous behavior by Iranian-backed Houthis continues to threaten regional stability and security."

Shipping giant Maersk said earlier this year it was rerouting its traffic around South Africa for the foreseeable future to avoid the risk of attacks off Yemen.

Dryad in its latest advisory said that it was recommending that any vessel tied to Israel avoid moving through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf "until further notice."

"Perceived affiliation with Israel may include past or partial ownership or management of a vessel, past or expected transit via Israeli ports," the advisory read. "Vessels linked with NATO countries are also assessed to be at a heightened risk when transiting these waters until further notice."

Israel does hold major gas deposits offshore, though no major regional energy installations have been attacked so far during the regional conflict. Heightened geopolitical risk could have a bullish impact on commodity prices, however.

Oil prices in particularly are on a downturn amid concerns of a possible recession in the U.S. economy, the world's largest. The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark for the price of oil, was in the upper $80 range in early July, but has since slumped to around $76 per barrel, following a dismal jobs report from the United States on Friday.

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