IIR's August 5 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Hezbollah says it launched a drone attack on northern Israel		The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah said it launched a drone attack early Monday on northern Israel that the Israeli military said wounded two Israeli troops. The violence came amid fears of an all-out regional war following the killings last week of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas' top political leader in Iran. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah said it targeted a military base in northern Israel in response to "attacks and assassinations" by Israel in several villages in southern Lebanon. The attack did not appear to be the more intense retaliation that's expected from Iran and its allied militias.	The Associated Press	Join Industrial Info for a Natural Gas & LNG Webinar
First F-16 fighter jets have arrived in Ukraine, Zelensky confirms		Ukraine has received and is already using its first batch of F-16 fighter jets, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday. Their arrival provides the country with a much-needed morale boost in its grinding war against Russia, though experts say they are unlikely to have a major impact on the battlefield. Officials declined to say exactly how many jets Ukraine will receive this year, but it won't be more than one squadron, about 20 jets. Though Ukraine has previously been limited in using Western weapons to strike targets in Russia, Western nations donating the F-16s have not disclosed any restrictions on how they can be deployed.	The Washington Post	The Rise of the Hydrocarbon Dependent World We Know and Love
Oil prices drop as US recession fears spark broader selloff		Oil futures extended losses in a volatile session on Monday, trailing a stock market selloff sparked by fears of a U.S. recession, though declines were buffered by worries that spreading conflict in the Middle East could hit crude supplies. Share markets tumbled across Asia as U.S. recession fears sent investors rushing from risk assets while wagering that rapid interest rate cuts will be needed to drive economic growth. U.S. recession concerns stoked by Friday's weak July payrolls report "only add to Chinese demand concerns that have been lingering in the oil market for some time", ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said in a note.	Reuters	U.S. Refiners Continue Capacity Additions as Utilization Rises
Dow drops 1,000 points, Nasdaq craters 6% in global market rout European markets plunge 3.5%. Japan's Nikkei logs worst day since 1987 Black Monday crash		U.S. stocks fell sharply on Monday as part of a global market sell-off centered around U.S. recession fears. Fears of a U.S. recession were the main culprit for the global market meltdown after Friday's disappointing July jobs report. European stocks fell sharply at the start of the new trading week, while the VIX volatility index spiked to a Covid-era high amid concerns of a looming U.S. recession.The 12.4% loss on the Nikkei was the worst day for the index since the "Black Monday" of 1987. The Nikkei erased all its gains this year, moving into a loss position. The yen also strengthened to its highest level against the dollar since January, and was last trading at 142.09.	CNBC	Germany to Spend $21 Billion on Hydrogen Network
Natural Gas News: Futures Dip Below $1.90 Amid Hurricane Debby Impact		Recent bearish trend persists with prices continuing to drop amid storm impact and cooling demand. Natural gas futures fall below $1.90 - & are trying to reverse course after testing a multi-month low at $1.907 earlier in the session - as Hurricane Debby approaches, impacting demand. Hurricane Debby's cooling winds and heavy rain reduce Southeast cooling demand, pressuring prices downward. High production levels, averaging 102.5 Bcf/d, and ample storage continue to weigh on natural gas prices. ExxonMobil delays Golden Pass LNG export project to 2025, exacerbating long-term bearish outlook for natural gas.	FX Empire	Air Liquide Grows U.S. Gas Projects as EV, Tech Markets Boom
Philippines, Germany vow to finalise defense pact amidst rising South China Sea tensions		Germany and the Philippines reached an agreement to expedite the finalisation of a defence agreement that would facilitate joint military training and possible sale of German weapons to address counter-security challenges, including China's increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea, which Manila's defense chief said was "the sole cause of tensions" and conflicts in the disputed waters. In June this year, Manila claimed that China had rammed Manila's navy vessels during a resupply mission on the Second Thomas Shoal. Similarly, the defence forces of Taiwan, yet another country facing China's expansionist claims have also reported several interventions by Chinese aircraft in its airspace in July this year.	Firstpost	IEA Reports Detail Sharp Global Electric Demand Growth, Modest Growth in Thermal Coal Use
Shale Keeps Getting Leaner and Meaner		U.S. oil production dipped by 61,000 barrels daily in May, the EIA reported this week, confirming what many already expected: continued stringent discipline among drillers. But those expectations may have been misleading because now some producers are planning output boosts-thanks to cost reductions. Wood Mackenzie analysts reported this week that costs in the shale patch could decline by 10% this year. "As consolidation occurs, often the acquiring company will not pick up the existing service companies. Once cut loose, these companies are searching for a lifeline and in many instances willing to work for negative margin rates, doing whatever they can to put money toward fixed period costs," one industry executive told the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Bloomberg reported this week that several large shale producers had revised their production plans for the year. One of them, Civitas Resources, said the revision was a result of higher than expected well yields in the Permian. But there may be another reason for these revisions and that reason may be lower costs, which are making drilling economical under circumstances that it would not have been economical a year ago.	OilPrice	Scurry-Fisher County Quakes Lead to Disaster Declaration
Week 07/29/24 - 08/05/24		Escalating geopolitical tensions amid a global financial market rout have these energy commodity markets in a vicious tug o' war. For the moment the financial markets melting down are pushing Mr. Oil Market prices down to new lows; however, fear of a Middle East regional conflict brewing, along with rising South China Sea tensions, are bolstering the market just enough that WTI has not crashed below $70 and Brent below $75. But anything is possible in the days ahead; so hold firmly onto your hats as it truly is going to be a wild, volatile, and rocky ride in these tumultuous markets...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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