IIR's February 19 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Iran, wary of wider war, urges its proxies to avoid provoking U.S.		Iran, eager to disrupt U.S. and Israeli interests in the Middle East but wary of provoking a direct confrontation, is privately urging Hezbollah and other armed groups to exercise restraint against U.S. forces, according to officials in the region. Israel's brutal war on Hamas in Gaza has stoked conflict between the United States and Iran's proxy forces on multiple fronts. With no cease-fire in sight, Iran could face the most significant test yet of its ability to exert influence over these allied militias.	Washington Post	Occidental Petroleum, Cenovus, Venture Global LNG: Your Daily Energy News
Germany leads EU call for more sanctions against Russia over Navalny		European Union countries including Germany called on Monday for new sanctions on Moscow over the death of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny, as they discussed a package of fresh penalties to mark two years of Russia's war on Ukraine. Hungary is the only EU state yet to approve the proposed restrictions against nearly 200 more firms and people deemed involved in the war in the bloc's 13th package of sanctions against Russia since Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.	Reuters	European Union Calls for 90% Cut in Emissions
Crude Oil Price Forecast - Crude Oil Continues to Look Strong		Crude oil markets were rather quiet during the Monday session but continue to look strong overall. WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis You can see that the WTI crude oil market has pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday in electronic trading. The 200-day EMA has offered a bit of support, so we'll have to wait and see how this plays out. But the $80 level above does seem to be an area where we have a lot of selling pressure. If we can break above there, then I do believe that the $80 level opens up a move to the $82.50 level, possibly even the $85 level	FXEmpire	Refiners Prepare for Another Big Year of Maintenance
Natural Gas Prices Forecast: How Will Industry Adjust to Market Glut?		U.S. natural gas prices plummet to an inflation-adjusted 30-year low, with front-month futures at Henry Hub reaching $1.58/MMBtu. Warmer winter temperatures and strong El Niño conditions lead to a significant decrease in gas consumption. Gas inventories reach a six-year high, while the industry responds by reducing drilling and increasing rig efficiency. Market Reaction and Adjustment These low prices are a clear indicator for the industry to slow down drilling and production. The number of rigs drilling for gas dropped from 162 in September 2022 to 119 in January 2024. Conclusion: Market Stability Ahead? The current state of the natural gas market, with its historic low prices and surplus inventory, suggests a cautious optimism for a rebalance.	FXEmpire	North American Chemical Processing Project Kickoffs Expected to Rise in 2024
U.S. regulators approve Mexico Pacific LNG's Saguaro connector pipeline		U.S. energy regulators on Thursday approved a cross-border pipeline that would export about 2.8 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas from Texas to Mexico Pacific's Saguaro LNG export plant on Mexico's west coast. The approval is another step in the company's plan to build an about $15 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Mexico that would export superchilled fuel processed from U.S. natural gas. Mexico Pacific LNG has yet to give the financial greenlight for the construction of the 15 million metric ton per annum plant. Thursday's ruling by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on the construction of the Saguaro Connector Pipeline comes weeks after the Biden administration paused export permit reviews by the Department of Energy. The administration wants the DOE to consider plants' climate, consumer, and community impacts in its deliberations.	Reuters	TC Energy Readies for 2024 Inland-to-Coast Pipeline Milestones
Unsustainably Low Lithium Prices Set the Stage for the Next Supply Crunch		The crash in lithium prices over the past year is holding back reinvestment in new supply, the world's largest producer of the key battery metal, Albemarle, says. Slowing growth in electric vehicle sales, including in the top EV market, China, and a market oversupply in battery metals sent lithium prices crashing by 80% in the past year, prompting lithium miners to pause and scale back expansion projects. The deferral of new supply developments amid the low prices is setting the stage for the next lithium supply crunch later this decade, executives and analysts say. As miners accelerated lithium production in 2022, the market swung from a supply deficit in 2022 to a surplus in 2023. Add to this slower Chinese EV sales than in previous years, and the perfect storm on the lithium market was created--too much supply, faltering demand.	Oil Price	IIR Tracks $15 Billion in U.S. Mine Restart Projects
Week 02/12/24 - 02/19/24		Honoring President's Day as the World looks askance to the U.S. as leadership is sought in regard to wars, energy & climate crisis and a host of other concerns - such as the global economy still finding itself in a fragile state. Which is pressuring hydrocarbon demand; however, not enough to overcome increasing geopolitical risks from Eastern Europe to the Middle East to Asia. At a time the World is hoping to fully recover from the scars of COVID and balance global trade & address the stress in supply chains which are being further stressed with what continues to unfold in the Red Sea and at the Panama Canal. This happening when half of the World's GDP finds itself in an election year with COP28 Pledges to wind down fossil fuels; while investing in renewables & alternative tech at risk of being honored.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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