IIR's July 1 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Israeli tanks advance into areas in north and south Gaza		Israeli forces advanced further on Sunday into the Shejaia neighbourhood of northern Gaza and also pushed deeper into western and central Rafah in the south, killing at least six Palestinians and destroying several homes, residents said. Arab mediators' efforts, backed by the United States, have stalled. Hamas says any deal must end the war and bring a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Israel says it will accept only temporary pauses in the fighting until Hamas, which has governed Gaza since 2007, is eradicated.	Reuters	U.S. Rig Count, Increasing Oil U.S. Production: Your Daily Energy News
Zelenskyy urges Biden to allow Ukraine to hit Russian airfields to stop Kremlin bombing campaign		Ukraine cannot stop the deadly rain of Russian bombs unless the U.S. gives permission to use long-range missiles to hit airfields in Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a new interview. Ukraine has been pleading for more air defenses to help fend off regular Russian drone and missile attacks that are destroying the country's electricity infrastructure and hitting cities across the country.	Politico	U.S. Petrochemical Plants Prep for Maintenance as Demand Soars
Oil prices lifted by summer demand hopes		Oil prices rose on Monday, helped by expected peak summer consumption and OPEC+ production cuts, though gains were capped by rising output from other producers and caution over potential market volatility ahead of pending elections. Both contracts gained about 6% in June, with Brent settling above $85 a barrel in the past two weeks after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, extended most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025. That led analysts to forecast supply deficits in the third quarter as transportation and demand for air-conditioning during the summer eat into fuel stockpiles. On Friday the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that oil production and demand for major products rose to a four-month high in April, supporting prices.	Reuters	P66's Renewable Refinery, Rodeo, Reaches Peak Capacity
European markets rise led by French stocks as traders digest election results		European stocks started the new trading week higher, as regional investors took in the results of the first round of France's snap parliamentary election. European markets are reacting to the results of the first round of the snap parliamentary election in France in which there was a sharp upswing in votes for the anti-immigrant National Rally party. Initial results point to it struggling for an absolute majority in the second round of voting that takes place on July 7, however, which analysts say would be the "least bad" result from a market perspective. French President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance came in third place Sunday.	CNBC	Supreme Court Overturns Chevron Case, Curtailing Power of Administrative Agencies
Natural Gas News: Pressured by Long Liquidation After Breaching Key Support		U.S. Natural Gas Futures Decline Sharply Amid Market Concerns: U.S. natural gas futures experienced a significant drop on Monday as traders assessed the impacts of weather patterns, storage levels, and production rates on the near-term market outlook. A decisive break below the $2.625 mark has prompted aggressive long liquidation, signaling potential further declines if production continues to rise and temperatures moderate. (However), demand for natural gas is expected to be High to Very High (as we enter July) Market Forecast: Given the high storage levels and rising production, the short-term outlook for natural gas prices remains bearish. The market's recent performance, unable to surpass recent highs, points to potential further declines.	FX Empire	Steady Activity Seen in Dallas Fed's Latest Energy Survey
Exxon Bets on Lithium To Complement its Legacy Oil Business		ExxonMobil joined major lithium producers this week in reiterating a bullish outlook on long-term lithium demand despite the current bearish market and recent price slump of the metal critical for the energy transition. Oil supermajor Exxon, which announced last year plans to produce lithium in Arkansas and become a leading EV battery supplier by 2030, is also optimistic about EV and lithium demand in the long term despite the bearish near-term market prospects. Exxon targets first lithium production for 2027 and is also evaluating growth opportunities globally. By 2030, ExxonMobil aims to be producing enough lithium to supply the manufacturing needs of more than a million EVs per year. The company is in ongoing discussions with potential customers, including EV and battery manufacturers.	OilPrice	Natural Hydrogen Hopes High, but Still May Be Years from Viability
Insights | WEF expert: China's innovation to shape global energy markets		According to WEF's "Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2024" report, the Energy Transition Index (ETI), which benchmarks 120 countries on their energy system performance and transition readiness, ranks China 17th globally, best in Asia and better than the U.S. "China's improvements over many years are due to, first of all, the good planning. Its Five-Year Plans have played a very important role in supporting this. There are policies supporting the growth and development in solar and wind energy, battery storage, immobility, and many other areas. This has benefited China in several ways," said Mehlum. He noted that China's energy transition created around 2 million green jobs in the energy sector between 2019 and 2022. Secondly, it helped the country decarbonize and reduce the carbon intensity to address climate change both domestically and globally. Thirdly, it also helped consumers worldwide benefit from some of these technologies at a reasonable cost.	Bloomberg	Energy Institute Report: Rise of Renewables Continues
Week 06/24/24 - 07/01/24		Stateside, the U.S. prepares to celebrate its independence, but one wonders are we any closer to a sustainable, decarbonized energy (food-water)/environmentally responsible independence? That answer unfortunately remains murky, with wars seemingly escalating in the Middle East and Eastern Europe and tensions rising in Asia Pacific. Not to mention shifting geopolitics amidst electoral outcomes--the latest being what is unfolding in Europe. But we still witness advances by supermajors into clean tech and other processes, as well as innovative practices coming out of Asia and the Americas. So, as the Northern Hemisphere prepares for extreme heat and extreme weather (with hurricanes spinning up in the Atlantic) here in July, there is still a glimmer of hope for future sustainable energy independence.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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