IIR's May 6 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Israel-Hamas cease-fire hope fades, Palestinians told to evacuate east Rafah ahead of expected offensive		Israel's military ordered Palestinians in the eastern part of the Gaza Strip city of Rafah to evacuate Monday ahead of a ground offensive long promised by the Jewish state's leaders. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government had stressed its intent to carry out an incursion into Rafah, Gaza's southernmost city, over the last week despite last-ditch efforts led by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt to broker a new cease-fire deal.	CBS News	Biden Administration Finalizes Changes to Environmental Review Law
Russia announces nuclear weapon drills after 'provocative' Western threats		Russia has said it will hold drills that will include practice for the use of tactical nuclear weapons, days after top European leaders voiced stronger military support for Ukraine. The Kremlin said on Monday the military exercises ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin were in response to statements by Western and NATO-member countries about sending troops into Ukraine, which Russia invaded more than two years ago.	Aljazeera	G7 Nations Call for Sixfold Increase in Energy Storage
Oil climbs as Gaza tensions rise, Saudi Arabia hikes prices		Oil futures climbed on Monday after Saudi Arabia hiked June crude prices for most regions and as the prospect of a Gaza ceasefire deal appeared slim, renewing fears the Israel-Hamas conflict could still widen in the key oil-producing region. Last week, both futures contracts posted their steepest weekly loss in three months, with Brent falling more than 7% and WTI down 6.8%, as investors weighed weak U.S. jobs data and the possible timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.	Reuters	SLB to Help Dust Off Canadian, Norwegian Projects
Gold gains as tepid U.S. jobs data revives Fed rate cut bets		Gold prices gained on Monday, deriving support from a soft U.S. dollar after a weaker-than-expected jobs report revived expectations that Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. The U.S. dollar dipped to its lowest level in about a month after the employment report revealed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April and the increase in annual wages fell below 4% for the first time in nearly three years. The data boosted bets of a September rate cut to 71% on Monday, as per CME's FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion and weigh on the U.S. currency, in which gold is priced.	CNBC	ISM: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Falls Back into Contraction Territory
Natural Gas News: Will Production Cuts, Heat Impact Prices This Week?		Last week witnessed an uptick in natural gas cash prices, propelled by reduced production activities and increasing temperature forecasts, which also lent support to the futures market. U.S. natural gas futures exhibited minimal change, sustaining a near-flat trend despite a brief rally, indicating a continued phase of market consolidation. Looking ahead, while the natural gas market grapples with an oversupply, traders remain watchful for signs that could pivot the market conditions. These include potential increases in LNG exports and shifts in weather conditions that might elevate demand. However, the near-term outlook continues to be bearish, influenced by high inventory levels.	FX Empire	Targa Nears Major Capacity Expansions at Permian, Mont Belvieu
The Race for Green Hydrogen Dominance is Heating Up		Several regions of the world are battling to achieve green hydrogen dominance by rapidly developing their hydrogen production capacity, transport infrastructure, and hydrogen corridors. While Asia and the Middle East are rapidly building their production capabilities, Europe is focusing on connectivity to ensure it can transport hydrogen across borders. The countries with the most ambitious green hydrogen production pipeline include China, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, the U.S., the U.K., Germany, Vietnam, Australia, Oman, France, and Canada. In 2023, China had 1060.9 kilotonnes of electrolysis-based hydrogen capacity in the final stages of development. While the second biggest green hydrogen power, Saudi Arabia, had 339 kT, followed by Sweden with 230.8 kT, demonstrating China's dominance of the sector.	OilPrice	Africa Home to Three Green Hydrogen Umbrella Projects
Week 04/29/24 - 05/06/24		Escalations are likely to occur in both the Middle East - where a Rafah offensive draws nigh - as well as in Eastern Europe - as Russia announces nuclear weapons drills. For in the Middle East a cease-fire deal appears to be off the table, while Russia reacts to NATO's increased support with the possibility of troops moving into Ukraine. Therefore, expect some of that geopolitical risk premium to return to Mr. Oil Market even as WTI slips back under $80 and Brent under $85. From an economic perspective, the conversation has flipped Stateside as rate cuts are back on the table for September after a weak jobs report - What, if any, escalation will this have in store for world economic markets?
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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