IIR's September 30 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Israel wants to change the balance of power in the Middle East. History has a warning		Killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was a step toward changing "the balance of power in the region for years to come," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Saturday. Israel's leader sees an opportunity opening up for a fundamental reconfiguration of power in Middle East and he may assume that Hezbollah are mortally wounded. Total victory, however, is elusive, and those who get what they wish for often live to regret it. Today Hezbollah is crippled and in disarray, and clearly infiltrated by Israeli intelligence - but still, it would be premature to write its epitaph.	CNN	Nation Cleans Up from Helene
China, at UN, warns against 'expansion of the battlefield' in the Ukraine war		Three days before his communist government turns 75, China's foreign minister warned fellow leaders Saturday against an "expansion of the battlefield" in Russia's war with Ukraine and said the Beijing government remains committed to shuttle diplomacy and efforts to push the conflict toward its end. "The top priority is to commit to no expansion of the battlefield. ... China is committed to playing a constructive role," Wang Yi said. He warned against other nations "throwing oil on the fire or exploiting the situation for selfish gains," a likely reference to the United States.	ABC News	Low Commodity Prices Bruise Energy Sector Confidence
Oil forecasts cut for 5th straight month on demand, OPEC uncertainty		Analysts have cut their 2024 oil price forecasts for a fifth consecutive month, citing weaker demand and uncertainty over OPEC's plans, with prices expected to remain under pressure despite geopolitical risks, a Reuters poll found on Monday. A Reuters poll of 41 analysts and economists conducted in the past two weeks projected Brent crude would average $81.52 per barrel in 2024, the lowest poll projection since February and down from $82.86 projected in August. U.S. crude prices are expected to average $77.64, below last month's forecast of $78.82. "The recent weakness in oil prices is partly attributable to market concerns over how and when OPEC will return barrels to the market, alongside weaker Chinese demand indicators," said Roger Read, Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo.	Reuters	Canada's LNG, Oil Sands Producers Race to Keep Up with Demand
European shares fall in last trading session of September China stocks just saw their best day of trading since 2008 amid a stimulus rally Gold pulls back but dovish Fed sets it for best quarter since 2016		European stocks were lower Monday, starting the week and the final trading session of September in negative territory. The lackluster start for European markets comes after the pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed at a fresh record high on Friday, as stocks got a boost from China's announcement last week of a range of stimulus measures that aim to boost the economy. Stocks in mainland China surged over 8% for its best day in 16 years while Japan's Nikkei 225 tumbled 4.8% on Monday as investors assessed key economic data from the two countries. Markets on the mainland will only be trading on Monday, before closing for the rest of the week due to the Golden Week holiday. "Gold still looks poised to have a potential run at $2,700 if labor market data this week aligns with the potential of another 75 basis points of easing from the Fed by year-end," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.	CNBC	Constellation, Microsoft Want to Restart Three Mile Island to Power Data Centers
Natural Gas News: Mixed Market as Key Resistance Levels Hold Futures in Check		Natural gas futures are trading mixed on Monday, hovering below last week's high of $2.932. Resistance sits at a 50% retracement level of $2.937, with the 200-day moving average at $2.970 presenting another key technical barrier. Several factors could trigger a bullish move in natural gas prices. One primary driver is the potential for supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), Winter demand is another critical factor. On the flip side, several bearish factors could weigh on prices. U.S. production remains near record highs, with output holding steady at around 100 Bcf/day. Inventories are providing a strong buffer heading into winter. Mild weather across much of the U.S. is also curbing demand for natural gas. In the near term, natural gas markets are likely to remain range-bound, influenced by both supply and demand factors.	FX Empire	Natural Gas Still Needed on the U.S. Grid
Scarborough Shoal 'completely surrounded' by Chinese ships, Filipino fishers say		Eyewitness accounts reveal a relentless patrol of Chinese ships around the South China Sea shoal, leaving Filipino fishermen fearful China's annual four-month fishing ban in the South China Sea may have ended, but fisherfolk of the Philippines' Zambales province report the persistent presence of Chinese vessels around Scarborough Shoal, just 120 nautical miles (222km) away. The Philippine Navy monitoring the area have counted around 14 vessels regularly patrolling the shoal, with four ships continuously present since June. "It's as if they're there 24/7; they don't leave," he said.	South China Morning Post	Nepal Aims for 10 GW Worth of Hydro Exports to India
U.S. Races Towards Lithium Independence with Ambitious Mining Projects		The U.S. government is actively supporting the development of a domestic lithium industry through favorable policies and substantial funding, aiming to secure a reliable supply of critical minerals for renewable energy and clean technology. Recent discoveries of massive lithium deposits in Nevada and California have significantly boosted the country's reserves, raising hopes for lithium independence. Despite promising developments, the U.S. faces challenges in scaling up its lithium extraction, refining, and production capabilities to meet the growing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage. However, there are high hopes for the future of U.S.-produced lithium, with Arkansas emerging as a major hub for the critical mineral. Several major companies, including companies such as ExxonMobil, Albemarle, and Standard Lithium, have invested in mining operations in Arkansas. Based on recent exploration activities, the lithium reserves in the state are of a high quality, which should make for easier extraction.	OilPrice	USGS Looks to Produced Water for Lithium
Week 09/23/24 - 09/30/24		A Chinese stimulus to bolster their economic markets which still face copious amounts of uncertainty from the numbers - manufacturing, labor, etc. - is reported. Mr. Oil Market hopes this China stimulus along with the recent Fed decision to aggressively cut rates could bolster demand. However, OPEC and other market pundits have their concerns. This as Saudi Arabia has shaken the oil markets with the announcement they are likely to put more barrels on the water. So it appears as we step into the month of Halloween the markets are scared of the many bogeymen, be they geopolitical, economical, or fundamental. And, the Bears could be in firm control by month's end...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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