Markets on Edge Ahead of 'Liberation Day'

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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Market jitters stemming from concerns about U.S. trade policies are spilling over to consumer demand for fuels, though data are highly volatile amid pending tariffs.

Major stock market indices were in the red on Monday amid fears that trade policies embraced by U.S. President Donald Trump could upend the global economy. Markets were bracing for what Trump has dubbed "Liberation Day," when his administration is expected Wednesday to enact sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners.

He's already enacted import taxes on aluminum and steel, targeted the auto sector and could this week place extra costs on crude oil imports from Canada. Canada is the top crude oil exporter to the U.S. economy by far, and much of the U.S. refining sector is tailored to process that type of oil.

With nothing seemingly off limits, the commodities markets were on the rise Monday amid concerns of tighter supplies. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, was clawing its way back toward $70 per barrel, while U.S. natural gas prices were up nearly 4% in early trading.

"There is time between now and 'Liberation Day' on Wednesday for a change of heart, but markets this morning are pricing-in a global trade war as the clock ticks down," John Evans, a market analyst at London oil broker PVM, wrote Monday.

Consumer confidence, meanwhile, is cratering. Tariffs, which are a tax on imports, are creating inflationary fears and The Conference Board last week reported that its consumer confidence index fell to its lowest point since January 2021.

Travel numbers posted by the U.S. Transportation Security Administration find travel numbers are nonetheless comparable to year-ago levels with around 2.5 million people moving through checkpoints over the 10-day period ending March 30.

Fuel numbers, however, tell a different story. Federal data show the total amount of jet fuel supplied to the market, a proxy for demand, averaged 1.4 million barrels per day over the seven-day period ending March 21. That's the lowest point since February 2024.

That may prove to be a blip in the data, however, which show jet fuel demand over the four-week period ending March 21 was up 3.9% compared to the same period last year. The total amount of refined petroleum products sent to the market was up 0.5% from year-ago levels, though motor gasoline levels were down about 0.2% from the same period last year, federal data showed.

The U.S. economy, meanwhile, took in 1.7 million barrels of jet fuel from the newly-opened Dangote refinery in Nigeria, and imports so far this month are poised for a record as U.S. refineries look to shore up supplies during the spring maintenance season.

PVM said the demand should tick up as summer approaches, adding the global appetite for jet fuel is on pace to increase by 6% annually in 2025.

Sticky inflation, cratering consumer confidence and disruptions to global trade are adding up, meanwhile. The GDPNow forecast for March 28 from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta points to a first quarter economic contraction of 2.8%, worse than the negative 1.8% reading from March 26.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).