Ontario Expected to Have Craft Labor Shortage in Coming Years

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Although the global decline in crude oil and natural gas prices has put a dent in project spending in Western Canada, Ontario is expected to continue growing project activity over the coming years, particularly in the southern part of the province. After reaching a low in project activity in 2009, from 2010 through 2014 Ontario saw annual compound growth rate for plant spending of 0.9%, averaging $24.44 billion per year. During this time, labor hour growth was 2.7%. Average project spending in Ontario is expected to increase only slightly over the coming four years (2016-19); however IIR's Labor Analysis forecast suggests a 7.4% CAGR in labor demand in the province over the next four years.

Click on image at right for a representation of historical and forecast project spending and craft labor demand in Ontario.

Leading into the 2015-16 time period, IIR has identified 406 major capital and maintenance projects valued at $24.12 billion that are set to move forward throughout the province. Most of this activity is occurring in Southern Ontario, with the Power Industry leading the way.

One of the largest projects impacting the region is Bruce Power LP's $2.5 billion 825-megawatt (MW) Nuclear Unit 4 Life Extension project, scheduled to start construction in summer 2016, along with a $200 million turbine replacement on Unit 2. Bruce recently announced that it would be spending even more on life extensions for additional units beginning in 2020 to keep the facility operating to 2064.

Canada's push for renewable energy is also coming to Ontario in a big way. The vast majority of what is being proposed in Ontario are windfarms. Industrial Info is currently tracking 14 active wind power projects with a total investment value of $2.28 billion, most of which is concentrated around the Great Lakes. Examples include Niagara Region Wind Corporation's $550 million, 230-MW windfarm near Grimsby, which currently is under construction and is expected to be completed next summer.

Skilled Labor Remains in Short Supply Going Forward
Although Industrial Info is expecting a modest pullback in project spending and craft labor demand in 2016, six of the 12 skilled crafts tracked by Industrial Info, including boilermakers, electricians, plumbers/pipefitters, and others, will experience deficits, which will only increase in subsequent years as project spending and labor demand increase. Unemployment in the area's industrial construction sector has already been quite low, and as project activity approaches pre-recession levels by 2020, labor supply and demand is expected to continue tightening.

Industrial Info's Craft Labor Analytics Group conducts direct surveys to gain information about craft labor supply, demand, wage rates and per diems for 12 crafts. As part of our Labor Supply, Demand and Wage Rate Forecast, we quantify this figures and offer wage progression from the recent past and into the coming years. For additional information, please call or email Tony Salemme, vice president of Industrial Info's Craft Labor Group, at (209) 547-9878 or tsalemme@industrialinfo.com.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, five offices in North America and 10 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.