Power Shortage in China Southern Power Grid to Last into 2012

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources China (Beijing, China)--Because of China's shortage of thermal coal, this year's drought conditions and the rapid growth in power demand, the power shortage in the China Southern Power Grid has become extremely serious. The crisis could last into 2012.

According to the forecast of China Southern Power Grid Corporation (Guangzhou), the power shortage in the five provinces covered by the China Southern Power Grid will be about 14 gigawatts (GW) in the fourth quarter of this year. The expected power shortage in the first half of 2012 will be about 10 to 15 GW.

The increasing power consumption, reduced output from hydropower due to drought, and insufficient coal supply to thermal power plants are the three major causes of the power shortage.

Since July 2011, the runoff of major river valleys in the grid area, namely the Hongshuihe River and the Wujiang River, have been cut off by 90% and 80%, respectively, compared with average levels. Current storage in reservoirs is 80% lower than last year. Based on the incoming flow at present, it's expected that the runoff of these two rivers will be about 60-80% less than the average level in September. The runoff in the Lancang River Valley will be about 30% less than the average level in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The high temperatures and increased use of energy-intensive products in western China has caused power consumption in the China Southern Power Grid to continue rising. Power usage in the grid has reached record demand levels 12 times this year.

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