IIR's March 4 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
What to know about the potential cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas		After weeks of negotiation, Israeli and Palestinian authorities may be nearing a cease-fire agreement that would allow for the release of hostages in the custody of Hamas - which governs the Gaza Strip - and prisoners detained in Israel. Both sides have accepted the general framework that includes more aid for Gazans, U.S. officials say, but not all of the details. Israel, Hamas and their mediators are trying to make a deal before March 10, the start of the holy month of Ramadan.	Washington Post	U.S. Oil & Gas Production, LNG Exports: Your Daily Energy News
Russia claims German military leak proves Western involvement in Ukraine		A wiretap recording of German military officials published over the weekend proves Western countries were participating in the conflict in Ukraine, the Kremlin has claimed. The assertion was made by a spokesman on Monday, shortly after Moscow had reportedly summoned the German ambassador. The previous day, Berlin said that the release of the recording via social media was part of efforts to "destabilise" Germany. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the discussions among military officials of the potential use by Ukraine of German-made Taurus missiles to hit Russian targets, "once again highlight the direct involvement of the collective West in the conflict in Ukraine".	Aljazeera	Nigeria's Dangote Delays Lekki Refinery Trial and Startup to April
Oil steadies after expected OPEC+ cut extension		Oil prices were little changed on Monday, a day after the widely expected extension of voluntary output cuts through the middle of the year by the OPEC+ producer group. Brent futures were up 19 cents to $83.74 a barrel at 1422 GMT after rising 2.4% last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 6 cents to $80.03 a barrel following a 4.6% gain last week. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are extending their voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) into the second quarter to cushion the market amid global economic concerns and rising output outside the group.	Reuters	ONEOK Set to Add Permian, Bakken Pipeline Capacity in 2024
Crude Oil Price Forecast - Crude Oil Continues to See Bullish Pressure		Crude oil markets continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but at the end of the day both grades that I follow do look very bullish, and at this point I think we will eventually have some type of big breakout to the upside. WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: The crude oil market pulled back slightly during the trading session on Monday, but still looks pretty bullish overall. The WTI crude oil market sees a significant resistance barrier in the form of $80, and it has been probed. At this point, I think it's probably only a matter of time before we break out above there. When we do, it's probably going to be very violent.	FX Empire	ISM: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Drops in February
Natural Gas Price Forecast - Natural Gas Continues to Recover		Natural Gas Technical Analysis: The natural gas markets bounced early during the day on Monday as it looks like we are continuing to see a little bit of recovery. At this point in time, the $2 level I think is going to be very crucial, so pay close attention to it. If we can break above the $2 level, then it is very likely that we go much higher and perhaps even try to go to $2.50 over the longer term. That being said, it is a market that's beaten down for a reason, quite frankly, there is just simply too much natural gas. But historically speaking, we are at an extraordinarily low level and I do think that you have a scenario where a lot of short covering could come into the picture.	FXEmpire	Permian E&Ps Seek Alternate Sales Channels Amid Low Natural Gas Prices
New York hopes offshore wind back on track after Orsted and Equinor's Round 4 reset		New York State in its rapid Round 4 offshore wind tender that closed today (Thursday) awarded 1.7GW in two projects by Equinor and an Orsted-Eversource joint venture (JV) that will see ratepayers ante up nearly 81% over previously contracted capacity. Equinor's 810MW Empire Wind project and Orsted-led JV's 920MW Sunrise Wind were winners in the latest round, representing less than half the capacity for the state that has been cancelled.	Recharge News	U.S. Offshore Wind Sector Sees New Generation, Sale and Construction Approval
Week 02/26/24 - 03/04/24		World geopolitics are like a balloon when you apply pressure one side--like what is happening in the Middle East to strike a cease-fire deal by Ramadan; then another side bulges, like what is unfolding in Eastern Europe as tensions run much hotter as Russia claims the West is becoming much more actively involved "on the ground." Speaking of pressure, both Oil and Natty are seemingly in a pressure cooker, which could burst violently to the upside this week. Although not a surprising announcement, OPEC+ did extend their cuts through June--which, depending on whether world economics will influence demand to the upside (jury remains out on this), one could find oneself in a tight market getting tighter.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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