IIR's September 16 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Israel-Gaza updates: Houthis claim 'hypersonic' missile attack on Israel		As the Israel-Hamas war continues, the latest round of cease-fire discussions appears to have reached an impasse. A missile described by the Houthis as a "new hypersonic ballistic missile" was hit by an Israeli interceptor, Israeli military officials said Sunday, after initially saying it got through its defenses and fell in an open area. The Israel Defense Forces initially confirmed to ABC News that its defenses failed to intercept the missile but changed its conclusions upon further investigation.	ABC News	U.S. Battery Systems, TC Energy, U.S. Rig Count: Your Daily Energy News
Russia War Map Shows Ukraine Carve Out New Incursion into Kursk		Ukrainian troops have made advances in the Kursk region, according to reports following accounts that Moscow was starting to succeed in counterattacking Kyiv's push into Russian territory "Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces reportedly recently recaptured territory in the area as of September 15," the isw said. Meanwhile, the U.S. has assessed that Russia would need up to 20 brigades-50,000 troops-to expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk, but Defense Department spokesman Major Gen. Pat Ryder said Thursday that Moscow's actions in the region so far were "marginal."	Newsweek	Francine Worse for Energy; Beryl Was Worse for Power
Oil prices climb ahead of US interest rate decision		Oil prices rose about 2% on Monday as continuing disruption to U.S. Gulf oil infrastructure balanced persistent demand concerns after a fresh round of Chinese data while investors await a likely cut to U.S. interest rates this week. The market is likely to remain cautious until the Federal Reserve makes its interest rate decision on Wednesday, said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva, adding that prices are still supported by some supply worries given that some capacity remains offline in the Gulf of Mexico. Traders are increasingly betting on a Fed rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) rather than 25 bps...	Reuters	Despite Storm Surge for Oil Prices, Markets Remain Bearish
European markets lower ahead of bumper week for central banks Dollar soft, yen strong as bets firm on aggressive Fed rate cut Gold jumps to record high on Fed rate cut outlook		European stocks were lower Monday as investors prepared for a bumper week of interest rate decisions from the U.S Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The dollar was lower on Monday while the yen hit its highest level in more than a year, as market participants increasingly expected an oversized rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this week. Fed speakers and data releases over the past month have had markets shifting the odds around the size of this week's rate cut, debating whether the Fed will head off weakness in the labor market with aggressive cuts or take a slower wait-and-see approach.	CNBC	GM, Hyundai to Explore Joint Development and Production of Vehicles, Clean-Energy Technologies
Natural Gas Price Forecast - Natural Gas Continues to See Support		The natural gas market has continued to see support near the $2.50 level on Monday, as the markets will continue to see the weather, recent conversions of oil to natural gas in China, and geopolitical issues as being bullish for this market. The natural gas markets have gone back and forth in the early hours again on Monday as we continue to see the $2.50 level offer a bit of a short-term floor. All things being equal, this is a market that is likely starting to look ahead to the colder temperatures.	FX Empire	Texas Regulators Reject One Proposed Power Project
China rams Philippine ship while 60 Minutes on board; South China Sea tensions could draw U.S. in		An escalating series of clashes in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China could draw the U.S., which has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, into the conflict. A 60 Minutes crew got a close look at the tense situation when traveling on a Philippine Coast Guard ship that was rammed by the Chinese Coast Guard. China has repeatedly rammed Philippine ships and blasted them with water cannons over the last two years. There are ongoing conversations between Washington and Manila about which scenarios would trigger U.S. involvement, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro said in an interview. "I really don't know the end state," Teodoro said. "All I know is that we cannot let them get away with what they're doing."	CBS News	Asia Leads the Way in Global Limestone Production
Time To Stop Looking to China for Oil Demand Growth		In its latest Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency revised down its outlook on global oil demand. There was only one reason for this: slower Chinese demand growth. For years, China has been the single biggest driver of oil demand expansion as its economy grew in leaps and bounds. Now, this seems to be over. And the world's biggest commodity market would need to adjust to a new reality. "With the steam seemingly running out of Chinese oil demand growth, and only modest increases or declines in most other countries, current trends reinforce our expectation that global demand will plateau by the end of this decade," The IEA wrote in its report.	OilPrice	Asia's Infrastructure Boom Drives Surge in Demand for Construction Equipment
Week 09/09/24 - 09/16/24		It's all about the Fed & the Interest rate cut this week. Will it be 50 bp or 25 bp or...? The bets are on 50 bp; however, the more sure bet is "on a likely Fed surprise." And so the world turns and waits with bated breath to determine its next course in these uncertain energy commodity as well as economic markets. Mr. Oil Market is up, slightly buying into a larger cut, but is that simply wishful thinking? As reality settles in that China can no longer "prop up Hydrocarbon Demand," one wonders how much longer the hype train can continue as it is mainly geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, Middle East and the South China Sea keeping world oil prices from crashing into the 60's.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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